One of Super Tuesday's biggest winners wasn't even on the ballot
One of Super Tuesday's biggest winners wasn't even on the ballot
Sinema dropping out is great news for Dems in general and Ruben Gallego in particular.
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Perhaps the biggest Super Tuesday story this year didn’t have anything to do with an election that happened yesterday.
Independent (former Democratic) Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema announced as people were voting Tuesday afternoon that she won’t seek reelection. That means she won’t be dividing the Democratic vote, and likely Dem nominee Ruben Gallego will probably be favored to defeat likely Republican nominee Kari Lake.
Primaries are important not necessarily because of what vote percentages tell us about the electorate. They’re important because they select a candidate — and candidate quality can have a major impact on general elections, as well as on the actual governance of the republic. That’s bad news heading toward November for Republicans in Arizona and elsewhere.
It’s gonna be a Biden/Trump rematch
“Primaries matter because they choose candidates” is a pretty straightforward point. But it’s been difficult to keep in mind in the current presidential campaign, where the results of both Democratic and Republican primaries have been a foregone conclusion for months, if not years.
Despite low approval ratings among the general electorate, President Joe Biden, the incumbent, has demonstrated his strength with Democratic primary voters by cruising to victories in state after state, as incumbents tend to do. Donald Trump, the former president running as a quasi-incumbent, has faced slightly more resistance, but not enough to draw sweeping conclusions about his standing in a general election campaign.
That’s not a very exciting story, and so analysts have been struggling to find something else to talk about.
Some early exit poll data from Super Tuesday suggests that a third of GOP primary voters won’t guarantee they’ll support the Republican nominee in November. Does that mean Trump is in trouble?! Probably not; it seems more likely that Democratic voters are crossing over to cast ballots in the more competitive GOP primaries.
Meanwhile, some 10 percent of Democratic primary voters chose “no preference” over Biden in Massachusetts. Is that a sign that progressives protesting Gaza policy pose a real threat to Biden’s campaign? Probably not; there was a 10 percent uncommited vote against Obama in 2012. (The one place where uncommitted did break through was in Minnesota, where uncommitted won over 15 percent of the vote. That will allow uncommitted, pro-Palestinian voters to send at least one delegate to the DNC.)
And no, Haley’s surprise win in Vermont doesn’t necessarily mean much for the general election either. (Though it’s fun to imagine Trump rending his cheap suits in rage.)
The obsession with the presidential primaries when not a whole lot is happening in the presidential primaries can lead analysts, journalists, and partisans to forget what primaries are for. They aren’t alternatives to polls. They’re ways to choose candidates.
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The Sinema is closed
In that context, again, the biggest news of the day was Sinema’s decision not to run in the Arizona Senate race. Sinema spent her Senate career since her election in 2018 running resolutely to the center and right; she refused to support Biden’s call for a filibuster carve out for abortion rights.
Sinema had a unique ability to draw ire from all parts of the political spectrum; polling in 2022 found her at 76 percent unfavorable with Arizona Democratic primary voters. She hoped she might have a path to victory as an Independent, but polls in three-way contests showed her trailing both Democratic and Republican opponents.
Democrat Gallego was ahead in most of those match-ups. He’s been running effectively against Sinema for much of her term in preparation for a potential primary. He’s positioned himself as both a blunt progressive and a Democratic loyalist, in contrast to Sinema’s constant efforts to thwart the party’s agenda. That’s helped make him a fund-raising juggernaut.
In contrast, election denier and extremist Republican Kari Lake managed to lose a close governor’s election in 2022. Since then she’s been insisting Democrats rigged the results, suffering a series of embarrassing defeats in court. She’s also been embroiled in a nasty internal fight with the Arizona Republican party, which hoped to get someone (anyone!) else to run for the Senate seat. But as of now they look like they’re going to be stuck with her.
Gallego is about the best candidate Democrats could hope for, and Lake is about the worst Republican her party could find. Still, three-way contests are volatile, and Sinema could have made the contest a tricker win for Democrats. Her decision to drop out boosts Gallego. It’s probably the most popular thing she’s done in her entire Senate term.
Super Tuesday mattered down ballot
Though the primaries on Super Tuesday gave us little new information about the presidential general election, there were a number of important state and local election primary contests which will have major consequences for November.
Among the most important Super Tuesday results were the victory of Lt. Governor Mark Robinson in the North Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary. The Trump-endorsed Robinson is an erratic and divisive extremist even by MAGA’s standards. He’s said that LGBT people are “filth” and “maggots.” He’s also claimed that the Holocaust was “hogwash” and suggested that Hitler did not kill six million Jews. At a rally he promised he wanted to outlaw all abortions, without exception — though he’s since walked back those comments and claimed he supports a (still incredibly brutal and violent) six-week abortion ban with exceptions for rape and incest.
Robinson’s extreme positions should help boost Attorney General Josh Stein, who won the Democratic primary, in his efforts to replace Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper. The race is currently Lean Democratic according to Cook Political Report. If the GOP wins, however, the GOP will consolidate control of state government under Robinson — which would be extremely bleak news for women and LGBT people in the state.
Democrats managed to avoid divisive results in a couple of key Senate races. Colin Allred won over 50 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary, which means he avoids a run off, and can start focusing immediately on trying to unseat potentially vulnerable incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz.
And in California’s jungle primary, Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff and Republican former baseball player Steve Garvey advanced to the general election. That’s disappointing for supporters of Democratic Reps. Katie Porter and Barbara Lee. But it means an easy win for Schiff in the general, rather than a massively expensive California D vs. D contest which might drain funds needed to defend a very difficult Senate map for Democrats.
There were a couple of at least potentially less favorable results for Democrats as well. In the Republican House primary for NC-01, Laurie Buckhout, a veteran and businesswoman, defeated repeat loser Sandy Smith; Buckhout probably has the better chance against Democratic incumbent Don Davis. And in Texas, Attorney General Ken Paxton targeted three Supreme Court judges who restrained his ability to prosecute elections; one has lost and two others were trailing as of late Tuesday night. That’s an ominous sign of the far right’s ascendancy in the state.
A good night for Dems
Both Trump and Biden are likely to capture the nominations officially in the next couple weeks at most. The presidential primary season is essentially over; we know who the candidates are. That’s about all the primary season can tell us.
There are a lot of other important primary contests coming though, including key Republican Senate primaries in Ohio, Nevada, and Montana. In 2022, low quality Senate candidates handed the chamber to Democrats despite a GOP advantage on paper. In 2024, Republicans look like they have an even better chance to take the chamber — but thanks to MAGA chaos, they could once again kneecap themselves. Republicans have similar potential problems in the House.
It’s too far out to for polls to predict winners in November. But given what we learned on Super Tuesday about candidate quality and the shape of this year’s general election races, it’s safe to say it was a good night for Democrats.
That’s it for today
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We’ll be back with more tomorrow. Until then, thanks for reading.
“It’s probably the most popular thing she’s done in her entire Senate term.” That is such a deliciously sick burn. And it is TRUE!
For someone who ran for Senate as a progressive, she’s been such a massive disappointment. Now we need to hold the Senate and finally finally yeet the 60 votes filibuster cudgel!
It’s astonishing that Manchin and Sinema seemingly never realized they were willing idiots doing exactly what Republicans wanted, allowing minority rule via a 40 vote veto to… everything. Yeeting the filibuster during McConnell’s final two years would be delicious. Oh please oh please.
Sinema is closed and Manchinema is gone!
We need to keep the Senate! Vote the whole ballot in November!