Cue the rebellion
The Democratic base is enraged at their party's capitulation — and that's a good thing.
PN is supported by paid subscribers. Become one ⬇️
Silver linings may not seem easy to find after a group of eight Senate Democrats signed on to a plan to end the federal government shutdown without requiring Republicans to give up much of anything. But there is hope to be found in the furious anger the capitulation produced, not only from the Democratic base but even from many elected Democrats who see which way the wind is blowing.
The unfortunate conclusion to the shutdown is going to fuel a rebellion within the Democratic Party, one that has already begun but will only get stronger. And despite all the justified disgust now being expressed at congressional Democrats, in the long run it will be good for the party.
Let’s begin with the deal that was struck by those eight Democrats.
Importantly, none of them are up for reelection next year, a good sign that they either volunteered or were persuaded by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to take the incoming fire that would inevitably come from their willingness to give in to the GOP.
And give in they did: The deal not only sets aside Democrats’ core demand — an extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies — it requires almost nothing from Republicans.
The deal will keep the government open until January 30, after which another budget extension will be required. It provides a full year of funding for military construction and the Departments of Veterans Affairs and Agriculture. The relatively small number of layoffs of government workers that occurred during the shutdown will be reversed. SNAP benefits won’t be cut off again, at least through next fall. And Senate Republicans promised to hold a vote in December on extending the ACA subsidies.
None of that amounts to a genuine concession from the GOP.
When the eight Democrats who voted in favor (a number that includes Sen. Angus King of Maine, who is technically an Independent) came out to explain their decision, their defenses were less than inspiring. In fact, they will likely serve only to increase the anger and contempt Democrats feel for their party’s establishment.
“Standing up to Trump didn’t work,” said King.
Critics “need to understand how the Senate works,” added Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois, explaining that elevating the issue of ACA subsidies was a victory in itself.
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire touted the fact that Democrats will get a vote on extending the subsidies, even though that vote is almost certain to fail. Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia explained that while they’ll almost certainly lose that vote, “everybody will get to see who is standing for them when it comes to lowering their healthcare costs.”
Kaine’s faith in the public’s propensity to pay attention to show votes in the Senate, then carefully apportion credit and blame for the outcome, is not exactly supported by history. But that’s not to say there was no case at all for capitulation.
Republicans were in an advantageous position, since they sincerely don’t care how much people suffer. They want those ACA subsidies to disappear, just as they wanted millions of people to lose their SNAP benefits. Don’t forget that their “Big Beautiful Bill” already cut SNAP by $186 billion, and many in the GOP spent the last few weeks sneering that food stamp beneficiaries are a bunch of lazy moochers (“Stop smoking crack,” one congressman tweeted).
President Trump no longer appears to care how unpopular he gets, so long as he gets his ballroom and puts his name on more buildings. The shutdown had to end sooner or later, and it was always fated to conclude with some kind of Democratic surrender, even if it didn’t have to be as abject as this one.
Those arguments may not be entirely persuasive, but more importantly, they are now beside the point. Even if the average voter is now more likely to appreciate the fact that Republicans are the ones responsible for their insurance premiums spiking, the more potent political force is the outright rage coming from the Democratic base.
The backlash is underway
For a historical precedent that sheds some light on this moment, we can look to Barack Obama’s presidency and how much anger it produced among Republican voters. No such comparison is perfect, and the Republican base and the Democratic base are different animals. Nevertheless, there are a number of instructive parallels that suggest how the Democratic rebellion might play out.
During that period, Republican voters saw their party’s congressional leadership as feckless and weak, unable to effectively stand up to a president those voters loathed. As much as the Tea Party was focused on hatred of Obama, its adherents expressed almost as much disdain for Republicans in Congress (especially in the House).
The second-ranking Republican in the House, Eric Cantor, was beaten in a 2014 primary by an underfunded far-right challenger. The next year, Speaker of the House John Boehner was hounded from office by the base; when Marco Rubio announced the news of Boehner’s resignation at the Values Voter Summit, the crowd whooped and hollered for over 30 seconds.
A whole new generation of Republicans transformed intra-party politics, to the point where primaries were decided by who hated Obama the most and who was least concerned with governing and more determined to burn everything to the ground. Many of those nihilists are still in Congress today.
Obama won reelection in 2012, but that was in large part because Mitt Romney might as well have been created in a factory to be the least appealing candidate at that moment in history. Both the 2010 and 2014 midterms were historic Republican victories; the party gained a stunning 63 House seats in 2010 to seize control of the chamber, and four years later netted nine Senate seats to take control there, too.
Throughout, the party’s base was in a state of constant anger at a leadership they felt wasn’t up to the job of opposition. That not only drove them to support primaries against longtime incumbents, it kept them coming to the polls even in the midterms. And while they found no appealing anti-establishment candidate in the 2012 presidential primary, they were still mad enough to flock to Donald Trump when he ran in 2016.
Which of those details one thinks can properly be analogized to what is happening right now is less important than the most basic ones: The Democratic base is enraged, not only at Trump but at their own leaders. And anger is an incredibly powerful force.
Democratic politicians themselves are already showing that they feel it.
“There’s no way to defend this, and you are right to be angry about it. I’m angry about it,” said Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut about the deal.
Even moderates like Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey condemned the capitulation. Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona — not exactly a pot-stirrer — wouldn’t say whether he’ll support Schumer as Democratic leader from this point on.
You can bet that this deal, as well as whatever happens in January when we have to go through this all again, will be an enormous issue in the 2026 Democratic primaries. Most incumbents are going to win (they always do), but there are likely to be more primary challenges than in a typical year. And many races will turn on whether the candidates can convince voters that they want to go to Washington to fight, to challenge not just Trump and the GOP but the entire status quo.
That desire is likely to determine the shape of the 2028 presidential nominating contest too. After another four years of Trump’s depredations and Democratic weakness, primary voters will demand that candidates demonstrate their fighting spirit. That can only be good for the party’s prospects.
It may not be much comfort for those bitter about what they see as a needless surrender. But there’s at least a chance that we’ll look back at this moment as a key turning point, one that produced a Democratic Party less willing to live on its knees.
That’s it for today
We’ll be back with more tomorrow. If you appreciate today’s PN, please do your part to keep us free by signing up for a paid subscription.
Thanks for reading, and for your support.
Are these Democrats not hearing us? Are they ignoring the protests? Do they need to replace the batteries in their hearing aides?! They keep giving away all of the advances we, the people, are making. We give them ammunition and they turn around and shoot us in the foot. Until you get corporate special interests out of politics, we are never going to fix DC. Not to mention, you don’t get hope and change with geriatric representatives.
Thanks for the breakdown, Paul. Spot on❣️
“SNAP benefits won’t be cut off again”
As if Russell Vought/Trump will honor that. Even with an end to the shutdown in sight, the regime appealed to SCOTUS to be allowed to continue denying SNAP benefits.