Perhaps my favorite part of this is Rick Santorum s response. I despised him in the early Drumpf days on CNN. He clearly hasn’t gotten any smarter! Thanks for all you do, PN.
People (men) have consistently underestimated the impact of the Dobbs decision. One pundit even wondered if women would remember by Nov 2024. Turns out people (women) don't like having their fundamental, basic human rights ripped away from them. Is there a single medical procedure for men that is outlawed in any jurisdiction?
??? 2022 polls were almost eerily accurate; split ticket predicted most of the races this year quite accurately.
G. Elliott Morris' book Strength in Numbers is a good discussion of why polls are valuable (and why they are often very uncertain and sometimes inaccurate.)
Was so looking forward to Axios at least tacitly admitting "Yeah our Youngkin 2024 hype circlejerk was really stupid" this morning. Freaking worms just outsourced the post-mortem to their Richmond franchise's writer. Who are they to pettily deny me the satisfaction of seeing them writhe?
Polls are like predictions in sports, sure they are based on "good information" and statistics BUT you actually have to Play the Game and Have the Election !! Even Nate Silver gives the underdog a statistical chance.
As my college statistics professor always referred to the statement ..."Liars use Statistics and Statistics Lie" maybe he meant Outcomes are not Guaranteed
Democrats--especially in deep red states--have learned to be quiet. You never know what an agitated MAGAt might do!
Polls are derived from sources that are out of touch with the population. Not only do a majority of people own cell phones, and not landlines, but they are unlikely to answer calls they don’t know. And computer polls are notoriously just phishing scams.
It was really fun to go in there and vote for abortion rights and cannabis freedoms in Ohio. It was EXTRA fun to see those measures pass. I'm not worried about the polls at this point. A lot of people can "not like" Biden but that doesn't mean that many won't still vote for him in light of Trump as the alternative. Dems gotta get Trump's crazy out there and in your face so people GET IT. I think many do not understand how dangerous he is.
Santorum: "...pure democracies are not the way to run a country,”. Republicans don't hide their anti-democratic, theocratic and anti-anyone who isn't a white, Christian male approach. Elevating Mike Johnson to the Speakership in the House erased any doubts about what Republicans want. People are tired of this and while it isn't showing up in the polls (fun fact: you can not like "Biden" but like the Democratic party and everything they've accomplished) and the majority of people don't rant and rave about their political positions, that doesn't mean they won't vote. I think the pendulum is swinging back to "Leave me alone with your self-righteous hatred, stay out of my bedroom, my doctor's office, my schools and my libraries". Republicans are not the sort to evaluate why their losing (i.e., Santorum) and change their ways. They'll double-down and make more people determined to vote for freedom.
I don't trust the polls and this is why. I also don't trust the NYT making news by creating polls, instead of reporting on the news, like letting people know what exactly each party stands for. I guess that is just too much work for them. I am so underwhelmed by the mainstream press that I skim the NYT down to the mini-crossword puzzle, and spelling bee most days, and that is that. If the NYT would actually report on Biden's accomplishments intelligently he would be doing better in the polls. All they can manage is to shit on his age! They are ageist and get away with it because no one calls them on it. And, they can't really find anything else to criticize.
Spelling bee aficionado here too. Sunday magazine and book review. Sometimes really great long form reporting on issue. But politics? Check their society page to gauge their target demographic. The evil orange cuts their taxes.
Well I didn't know Youngkin had distinguished himself as anti-trans. With so much strident trans-bashing in the Republican party Youngkin was a low profile bigot. I'd like to believe we are getting some sort of evidence that trans-bashing isn't working in general elections. That would make sense. Unlike gay people, trans people are pretty rare and while I'm not sure the community is full of care and empathy for them I wonder if they're just too rare to be bogey-men and women. Whereas abortion rights - now that is salient to a LOT of people.
I stopped paying attention to polls years ago when I recognized only people with landlines are getting polled (me included). I mean, how many Gens X, Y, Z or Millennials have a landline? I have four adult kids, 2 gen X and 2 Millennials, and none of them has a landline. Something to consider.
Does anyone else wonder who, exactly, the pollsters are asking about how Biden is doing? I feel like this is a Dewey/Truman rerun, when they only asked people with telephones who they were voting for. Most of us don't answer our cell phones if we don't know the caller. Are they using home phones? Even at 74 I ditched my home phone years ago. I don't know anyone who has spoken to a pollster. I'm wondering if the low approval rating is because they haven't figured out how to contact Democrats?
Perhaps my favorite part of this is Rick Santorum s response. I despised him in the early Drumpf days on CNN. He clearly hasn’t gotten any smarter! Thanks for all you do, PN.
Yes. These aren't "sexy" issues...they are FREEDOM issues. Santorum...ugh.
Great to know that Butt Bubbles is still as hateful, and Fascistic, as ever....
https://www.vice.com/en/article/jmv5wd/gross-jar-2012-week-2-santorum
People (men) have consistently underestimated the impact of the Dobbs decision. One pundit even wondered if women would remember by Nov 2024. Turns out people (women) don't like having their fundamental, basic human rights ripped away from them. Is there a single medical procedure for men that is outlawed in any jurisdiction?
trans men have their access to medical care severely restricted in many jurisdictions. but you're point stands.
Insane right? The first thought I had when I heard the Dobbs decision was well they just fucked themselves big time..
And you were right Patris, very, very right.
I thought it odd too, sexy issues abortion and weed. Who knew?
Political analysis based on public opinion polling is guesswork, but y'all are having a very difficult time realizing that.
electoral polls in 2022 and 2023 were very accurate. It's just Biden's approval polls that are weird.
Perhaps the polls were accurate, or something like accurate, but the analysis was and is increasingly biased rightward.
No they weren’t. Polls are hogwash.
??? 2022 polls were almost eerily accurate; split ticket predicted most of the races this year quite accurately.
G. Elliott Morris' book Strength in Numbers is a good discussion of why polls are valuable (and why they are often very uncertain and sometimes inaccurate.)
Was so looking forward to Axios at least tacitly admitting "Yeah our Youngkin 2024 hype circlejerk was really stupid" this morning. Freaking worms just outsourced the post-mortem to their Richmond franchise's writer. Who are they to pettily deny me the satisfaction of seeing them writhe?
Assholes.
Perhaps the reliance on polls is unreliable? 🙄
Polls are like predictions in sports, sure they are based on "good information" and statistics BUT you actually have to Play the Game and Have the Election !! Even Nate Silver gives the underdog a statistical chance.
As my college statistics professor always referred to the statement ..."Liars use Statistics and Statistics Lie" maybe he meant Outcomes are not Guaranteed
It’s not rocket science.
Democrats--especially in deep red states--have learned to be quiet. You never know what an agitated MAGAt might do!
Polls are derived from sources that are out of touch with the population. Not only do a majority of people own cell phones, and not landlines, but they are unlikely to answer calls they don’t know. And computer polls are notoriously just phishing scams.
It was really fun to go in there and vote for abortion rights and cannabis freedoms in Ohio. It was EXTRA fun to see those measures pass. I'm not worried about the polls at this point. A lot of people can "not like" Biden but that doesn't mean that many won't still vote for him in light of Trump as the alternative. Dems gotta get Trump's crazy out there and in your face so people GET IT. I think many do not understand how dangerous he is.
Santorum: "...pure democracies are not the way to run a country,”. Republicans don't hide their anti-democratic, theocratic and anti-anyone who isn't a white, Christian male approach. Elevating Mike Johnson to the Speakership in the House erased any doubts about what Republicans want. People are tired of this and while it isn't showing up in the polls (fun fact: you can not like "Biden" but like the Democratic party and everything they've accomplished) and the majority of people don't rant and rave about their political positions, that doesn't mean they won't vote. I think the pendulum is swinging back to "Leave me alone with your self-righteous hatred, stay out of my bedroom, my doctor's office, my schools and my libraries". Republicans are not the sort to evaluate why their losing (i.e., Santorum) and change their ways. They'll double-down and make more people determined to vote for freedom.
I don't trust the polls and this is why. I also don't trust the NYT making news by creating polls, instead of reporting on the news, like letting people know what exactly each party stands for. I guess that is just too much work for them. I am so underwhelmed by the mainstream press that I skim the NYT down to the mini-crossword puzzle, and spelling bee most days, and that is that. If the NYT would actually report on Biden's accomplishments intelligently he would be doing better in the polls. All they can manage is to shit on his age! They are ageist and get away with it because no one calls them on it. And, they can't really find anything else to criticize.
Spelling bee aficionado here too. Sunday magazine and book review. Sometimes really great long form reporting on issue. But politics? Check their society page to gauge their target demographic. The evil orange cuts their taxes.
Go Blue!!
I am increasingly convinced the bad Biden polls are a mirage.
Well I didn't know Youngkin had distinguished himself as anti-trans. With so much strident trans-bashing in the Republican party Youngkin was a low profile bigot. I'd like to believe we are getting some sort of evidence that trans-bashing isn't working in general elections. That would make sense. Unlike gay people, trans people are pretty rare and while I'm not sure the community is full of care and empathy for them I wonder if they're just too rare to be bogey-men and women. Whereas abortion rights - now that is salient to a LOT of people.
I stopped paying attention to polls years ago when I recognized only people with landlines are getting polled (me included). I mean, how many Gens X, Y, Z or Millennials have a landline? I have four adult kids, 2 gen X and 2 Millennials, and none of them has a landline. Something to consider.
Does anyone else wonder who, exactly, the pollsters are asking about how Biden is doing? I feel like this is a Dewey/Truman rerun, when they only asked people with telephones who they were voting for. Most of us don't answer our cell phones if we don't know the caller. Are they using home phones? Even at 74 I ditched my home phone years ago. I don't know anyone who has spoken to a pollster. I'm wondering if the low approval rating is because they haven't figured out how to contact Democrats?