President Biden's numbers aren't great. But he and his party keep winning anyway.
Perhaps my favorite part of this is Rick Santorum s response. I despised him in the early Drumpf days on CNN. He clearly hasn’t gotten any smarter! Thanks for all you do, PN.
People (men) have consistently underestimated the impact of the Dobbs decision. One pundit even wondered if women would remember by Nov 2024. Turns out people (women) don't like having their fundamental, basic human rights ripped away from them. Is there a single medical procedure for men that is outlawed in any jurisdiction?
I thought it odd too, sexy issues abortion and weed. Who knew?
Political analysis based on public opinion polling is guesswork, but y'all are having a very difficult time realizing that.
Was so looking forward to Axios at least tacitly admitting "Yeah our Youngkin 2024 hype circlejerk was really stupid" this morning. Freaking worms just outsourced the post-mortem to their Richmond franchise's writer. Who are they to pettily deny me the satisfaction of seeing them writhe?
Perhaps the reliance on polls is unreliable? 🙄
Polls are like predictions in sports, sure they are based on "good information" and statistics BUT you actually have to Play the Game and Have the Election !! Even Nate Silver gives the underdog a statistical chance.
As my college statistics professor always referred to the statement ..."Liars use Statistics and Statistics Lie" maybe he meant Outcomes are not Guaranteed
It’s not rocket science.
Democrats--especially in deep red states--have learned to be quiet. You never know what an agitated MAGAt might do!
Polls are derived from sources that are out of touch with the population. Not only do a majority of people own cell phones, and not landlines, but they are unlikely to answer calls they don’t know. And computer polls are notoriously just phishing scams.
It was really fun to go in there and vote for abortion rights and cannabis freedoms in Ohio. It was EXTRA fun to see those measures pass. I'm not worried about the polls at this point. A lot of people can "not like" Biden but that doesn't mean that many won't still vote for him in light of Trump as the alternative. Dems gotta get Trump's crazy out there and in your face so people GET IT. I think many do not understand how dangerous he is.
Santorum: "...pure democracies are not the way to run a country,”. Republicans don't hide their anti-democratic, theocratic and anti-anyone who isn't a white, Christian male approach. Elevating Mike Johnson to the Speakership in the House erased any doubts about what Republicans want. People are tired of this and while it isn't showing up in the polls (fun fact: you can not like "Biden" but like the Democratic party and everything they've accomplished) and the majority of people don't rant and rave about their political positions, that doesn't mean they won't vote. I think the pendulum is swinging back to "Leave me alone with your self-righteous hatred, stay out of my bedroom, my doctor's office, my schools and my libraries". Republicans are not the sort to evaluate why their losing (i.e., Santorum) and change their ways. They'll double-down and make more people determined to vote for freedom.
I don't trust the polls and this is why. I also don't trust the NYT making news by creating polls, instead of reporting on the news, like letting people know what exactly each party stands for. I guess that is just too much work for them. I am so underwhelmed by the mainstream press that I skim the NYT down to the mini-crossword puzzle, and spelling bee most days, and that is that. If the NYT would actually report on Biden's accomplishments intelligently he would be doing better in the polls. All they can manage is to shit on his age! They are ageist and get away with it because no one calls them on it. And, they can't really find anything else to criticize.
I am increasingly convinced the bad Biden polls are a mirage.
Well I didn't know Youngkin had distinguished himself as anti-trans. With so much strident trans-bashing in the Republican party Youngkin was a low profile bigot. I'd like to believe we are getting some sort of evidence that trans-bashing isn't working in general elections. That would make sense. Unlike gay people, trans people are pretty rare and while I'm not sure the community is full of care and empathy for them I wonder if they're just too rare to be bogey-men and women. Whereas abortion rights - now that is salient to a LOT of people.
I stopped paying attention to polls years ago when I recognized only people with landlines are getting polled (me included). I mean, how many Gens X, Y, Z or Millennials have a landline? I have four adult kids, 2 gen X and 2 Millennials, and none of them has a landline. Something to consider.
Another data point for your articles, Noah—according to Ring of Fire's Farron Cousins, his own donors are starting to demand refunds! 🤣