I’ve said this before—the NYT polls skew the results, as you point out, by the way the questions are phrased. Thank you for shedding light on this. I don’t pay much attention to their polls or to Nate Silver.
I understand what you are saying. But you can’t dismiss complacency either. Both despondency and complacency exist. Also people are very tired of this.
Well, *I'M* tired of the "Biden's LOSING! He's OLD!" shit from the MSM, and people like you running around screaming "THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING!"
You are part of the problem along with the MSM, not part of the solution like Noah and others who look to these polls as signs that we can't count on the "Libburul Media" or the courts to save us—we need to mobilize ourselves.
So either lead, follow—or get the Hell out of the way. Stop running around and blocking everybody else with your doom&gloom....
I am not doing that. You are off the wall. I am saying these polls are an indication of where there is work to be done. People are tired understandably of whole Trump thing and are tuning it out. People like you are looking to place your anger…not so different from anyone on both sides.
I have not posted ANYTHING that is gloom and doom. You are shooting your mouth off at a messenger on the same side. Now get your anger off somewhere else.
::Pay attention! Even considering skewing, sticking your head in the ground and disbelieving is risky. I am worried.::
Maybe you need to rethink how you...inspire people, because I read what you have to say and I sure don't feel "inspired" to do anything but go look at videos of kittens for several hours to get over how people like you make me feel.
Hard stop on all the polling BS. Especially from a paper who CEO “ don’t see my job as defending democracy”
Between the women’s health issues, better life, better finances for the majority who vote, And the slew of other information publicly available, journalists who support democracy need to stop repeating the tropes.
Yes, there’s a lot of work to do, yes we need to keep working to get out the vote and spell out the issues . What all journalists need to comprehend is how faulty every poll is, that is why they have all been wrong for years! One thing is a pungently clear, the old archaic methods of polling are not changing with the times. Why don’t you interview Christopher Bouzy-so far as I have been able to find he is the only one who is predicted accurately the outcomes within the last two years. Let’s find out what he does different. @cbouzy on twitter or Spoutible
Regardless of the faults of the polls, this is nothing to calm ourselves with. This race should not be so close. There is too much nay-saying about the polls. They are snapshots yes, but they indicate where the work to be done lies as you say.
It’s certainly important for news organizations to report the news objectively. However, it is more than equally important for them to state their opinions about the news outside of the news stories themselves. That’s a point of reference in letters to editors about the stories of the day which should remind them that their entire existence is owed to the Constitution and its First Amendment.
The recommendations listed in this article are good. But I have to question one thing left out in the analysis. The breakdown of respondents to the poll showed a three percent difference (49-46) Republicans over Democrats. Why would any legitimate poll do that?
There are other assumptions that seem questionable to me. These don’t obscure the fact that the election is much closer than it should be. I remain cautiously optimistic because there have been too many special elections over the last few years that were predicted tight in the polls that turned out rather one sided (Wisconsin Supreme Court election, for example).
If any reader is interested in some more questionable assumptions in the Times poll I suggest they do a search on YouTube for Joe Scarborough’s analysis (I can’t believe I wrote those words!) on his show this morning. My favorite was 20% of “likely voters” didn’t vote in the last midterm, or the 2020 election, or actually had ever voted at all.
See Simon Rosenbergs analysis and NYT poll that was more recently released. NYT was an outlier and when you look at likely voters v registered bidens ahead but it’s a sadly close election-reflection of MSM terrible job at reporting on Trump and GOP freakish extremism, and historically HOT economy under Biden due to CHIPS, infrastructure ARP and other historic legislation
thank you! Biden needs help from the responsible media. They need to remind the low information, take-our-country-for-granted voters of the Trump presidency, his criminality, his MAGA partisan-above all agenda and incredible lack of decency. How could these people be so tuned out???
I would say that they deserve what they will get, except they drag us all with them. This is a battle and we had better engage.
But how much of this is NY TIMES Hackery because their current owner is butthurt that Biden won't kowtow to him?
I agree that Biden's campaign needs to go on the offensive more against Trump—Biden's doing his part, now how about his surrogates doing theirs? Geez, even Bernie Sanders, who has no reason to love Biden, is coming out strongly for him!
I’d like to remind voters that Trump named four judges/justices who apparently do not subscribe to the rule of law and perhaps have more concern for the person who nominated them. We can point to them in terms of Dobbs. And we can certainly appoint to Judge Cannon who has shown that payback for her lifetime appointment is more important than her oath to protect and defend The Constitution of the United States.
Question: Is there evidence that bad polls — showing a candidate losing — cause a candidate who was winning — or neck and neck -- to lose? It seems to me that it might make his/her supporters work harder.
Please (everyone *please*) understand that I do not support false polls; I understand how the question was asked provides the results. I’m wid use.
there isn't evidence that bad poll numbers hurt candidates; there's some evidence that overconfidence does.
I don't think nyt/siena is a bad poll. I think people aren't always great at interpreting poll data. we're still too far out for polls to be very predictive, and questions like "what do you remember from trump's presidency" are misleading without a number of caveats. polls provide useful info (by for instance reiterating here that abortion is a very good issue for Ds.) but you just need to be cautious about interpreting them, and remember that the future is always in motion.
Yet partisans hate polls that say their candidate is hurting. And some call them bad polls. I’ll try to take your advice and stay above the polls for the interim. Thanks!
I’ve said this before—the NYT polls skew the results, as you point out, by the way the questions are phrased. Thank you for shedding light on this. I don’t pay much attention to their polls or to Nate Silver.
Amen! Nate who? lol
Pay attention! Even considering skewing, sticking your head in the ground and disbelieving is risky. I am worried.
Nobody's complacent here—but we're ALSO not letting the MSM plunge us into despondency because "Trump's Good for Clicks!".
I understand what you are saying. But you can’t dismiss complacency either. Both despondency and complacency exist. Also people are very tired of this.
Well, *I'M* tired of the "Biden's LOSING! He's OLD!" shit from the MSM, and people like you running around screaming "THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING!"
You are part of the problem along with the MSM, not part of the solution like Noah and others who look to these polls as signs that we can't count on the "Libburul Media" or the courts to save us—we need to mobilize ourselves.
So either lead, follow—or get the Hell out of the way. Stop running around and blocking everybody else with your doom&gloom....
I am not doing that. You are off the wall. I am saying these polls are an indication of where there is work to be done. People are tired understandably of whole Trump thing and are tuning it out. People like you are looking to place your anger…not so different from anyone on both sides.
I have not posted ANYTHING that is gloom and doom. You are shooting your mouth off at a messenger on the same side. Now get your anger off somewhere else.
You said, and I quote:
::Pay attention! Even considering skewing, sticking your head in the ground and disbelieving is risky. I am worried.::
Maybe you need to rethink how you...inspire people, because I read what you have to say and I sure don't feel "inspired" to do anything but go look at videos of kittens for several hours to get over how people like you make me feel.
Now, if you'll excuse me....
https://www.youtube.com/@LoveThyCat
Hard stop on all the polling BS. Especially from a paper who CEO “ don’t see my job as defending democracy”
Between the women’s health issues, better life, better finances for the majority who vote, And the slew of other information publicly available, journalists who support democracy need to stop repeating the tropes.
Yes, there’s a lot of work to do, yes we need to keep working to get out the vote and spell out the issues . What all journalists need to comprehend is how faulty every poll is, that is why they have all been wrong for years! One thing is a pungently clear, the old archaic methods of polling are not changing with the times. Why don’t you interview Christopher Bouzy-so far as I have been able to find he is the only one who is predicted accurately the outcomes within the last two years. Let’s find out what he does different. @cbouzy on twitter or Spoutible
Regardless of the faults of the polls, this is nothing to calm ourselves with. This race should not be so close. There is too much nay-saying about the polls. They are snapshots yes, but they indicate where the work to be done lies as you say.
It is a stain on our time, that the pathology of our country would even consider a malignant narcissist for their leader. And that, there is no doubt.
It’s certainly important for news organizations to report the news objectively. However, it is more than equally important for them to state their opinions about the news outside of the news stories themselves. That’s a point of reference in letters to editors about the stories of the day which should remind them that their entire existence is owed to the Constitution and its First Amendment.
The recommendations listed in this article are good. But I have to question one thing left out in the analysis. The breakdown of respondents to the poll showed a three percent difference (49-46) Republicans over Democrats. Why would any legitimate poll do that?
There are other assumptions that seem questionable to me. These don’t obscure the fact that the election is much closer than it should be. I remain cautiously optimistic because there have been too many special elections over the last few years that were predicted tight in the polls that turned out rather one sided (Wisconsin Supreme Court election, for example).
If any reader is interested in some more questionable assumptions in the Times poll I suggest they do a search on YouTube for Joe Scarborough’s analysis (I can’t believe I wrote those words!) on his show this morning. My favorite was 20% of “likely voters” didn’t vote in the last midterm, or the 2020 election, or actually had ever voted at all.
Funny how the NY Times isn’t reporting as much on this other poll, taken at much the same time.
But then they can’t use it to punish Biden for not sitting down for an interview with them.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/14/upshot/support-third-party-candidates.html
See Simon Rosenbergs analysis and NYT poll that was more recently released. NYT was an outlier and when you look at likely voters v registered bidens ahead but it’s a sadly close election-reflection of MSM terrible job at reporting on Trump and GOP freakish extremism, and historically HOT economy under Biden due to CHIPS, infrastructure ARP and other historic legislation
thank you! Biden needs help from the responsible media. They need to remind the low information, take-our-country-for-granted voters of the Trump presidency, his criminality, his MAGA partisan-above all agenda and incredible lack of decency. How could these people be so tuned out???
I would say that they deserve what they will get, except they drag us all with them. This is a battle and we had better engage.
Tell 'em about trying to hunt down toilet paper. That might refresh their memory.
But how much of this is NY TIMES Hackery because their current owner is butthurt that Biden won't kowtow to him?
I agree that Biden's campaign needs to go on the offensive more against Trump—Biden's doing his part, now how about his surrogates doing theirs? Geez, even Bernie Sanders, who has no reason to love Biden, is coming out strongly for him!
I’d like to remind voters that Trump named four judges/justices who apparently do not subscribe to the rule of law and perhaps have more concern for the person who nominated them. We can point to them in terms of Dobbs. And we can certainly appoint to Judge Cannon who has shown that payback for her lifetime appointment is more important than her oath to protect and defend The Constitution of the United States.
Question: Is there evidence that bad polls — showing a candidate losing — cause a candidate who was winning — or neck and neck -- to lose? It seems to me that it might make his/her supporters work harder.
Please (everyone *please*) understand that I do not support false polls; I understand how the question was asked provides the results. I’m wid use.
But: What’s going on here?
there isn't evidence that bad poll numbers hurt candidates; there's some evidence that overconfidence does.
I don't think nyt/siena is a bad poll. I think people aren't always great at interpreting poll data. we're still too far out for polls to be very predictive, and questions like "what do you remember from trump's presidency" are misleading without a number of caveats. polls provide useful info (by for instance reiterating here that abortion is a very good issue for Ds.) but you just need to be cautious about interpreting them, and remember that the future is always in motion.
Yet partisans hate polls that say their candidate is hurting. And some call them bad polls. I’ll try to take your advice and stay above the polls for the interim. Thanks!
Only 38% of those polled remembered Trump saying something offensive?
From an article I read in Washington Monthly (I think): The same nation that elected Obama, turned around and elected* tfg.
*The EC is a part of our nation.