2025 was a political disaster for MAGA
And 2026 could be even worse.
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Of all the obvious lies the Trump administration tells on a daily basis, there’s one that stands out as particularly ridiculous: that the president shakes so many hands he has sustained significant injuries.
“President Trump is a man of the people and he meets more Americans and shakes their hands on a daily basis than any other President in history,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told Public Notice last week in response to questions about the bandages Donald Trump has worn on his hand since at least August. “His commitment is unwavering and he proves that every single day.”
This lie about Trump’s hand — an attempt to cover up what is clearly some sort of significant health issue — is perhaps the most egregious in the campaign the White House is now waging to make things seem better than they actually are.
From the Epstein files, to the economy, to the deadly military airstrikes on alleged drug boats in international waters, Trump and his entire administration are engaged in a desperate battle against the truth at the end of politically disastrous year for the MAGA movement.
But the lies aren’t really working anymore, and polls reflect this. Against the backdrop of a sluggish economy that’s been made worse by his own policies, Trump is less popular than he’s ever been. Instead of actually doing something to combat stubborn inflation and stagnant job growth, the president and his surrogates are just trying to lie their way out of it.
Meanwhile, despite having power in both the House and the Senate, congressional Republicans have failed to accomplish anything of note since the passage of Trump’s (also deeply unpopular) “Big Beautiful Bill.” Right now, they’re doing nothing to prevent healthcare premiums from rising for 21 million Americans when enhanced Obamacare subsidies expire at the end of this month.
Tellingly, when a reporter asked Trump during a recent interview about Americans who might have to choose between holiday gifts and saving money for rising healthcare costs, he dismissed the question, saying “don’t be dramatic.”
As the year draws to a close, GOP electoral losses have piled up, and Republicans across the country increasingly oppose Trump on everything from tariffs to redistricting. Courts are ruling against his immigration policies and attempts to gut the federal government, and Democratic governors and mayors are racking up important wins in courts and in the realm of public opinion.
Led by an erratic president who is failing at his only real skill — messaging — the Trump administration is losing a multifront political war, and things are likely to get worse for them before they get better (if they ever do).
Nobody is buying it
Hours after this newsletter published a piece about Trump’s hand bandages last Thursday, Leavitt was finally asked to explain what’s going on with them during a White House press briefing.
“We’ve given you an explanation,” she said. “The president is literally constantly shaking hands.”
In fact, Trump has had fewer public events this year than any other he’s been in office, meaning less handshaking. The White House and Republicans know this is a problem. Trump’s greatest political gift is arguably his ability to connect with his base, which he hasn’t been doing much of as he’s sequestered himself in the White House and at a Mar-a-Lago while almost exclusively traveling internationally.
To combat the perception that president is isolated and out of touch, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles (who was in the news yesterday for an interview in which she described the president as having an “alcoholic’s personality”) wants Trump to get back out on the road.
“I haven’t quite broken it to him yet, but he’s going to campaign like it’s 2024 again,” Wiles told a conservative YouTube channel earlier this month.
But Trump’s first crack at this didn’t go terribly well.
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At an event in Pennsylvania last week, Trump fumbled on his response to the economic messaging that Democrats have been using to hammer him. First, it took him a full 15 minutes into his speech before mentioning “affordability.” Then, in a confusing soliloquy, he appeared to push communist-style rationing on Americans.
“You know, you can give up certain products. You can give up pencils,” Trump said. “They only need one or two. They don’t need that many. But you always need steel.”
Trump added that American girls “don’t need” 37 dolls.
“Two or three is nice, you don’t need 37,” he said.
When he wasn’t suggesting austerity for the holidays, Trump was lying about the state of the economy. He’s repeatedly called the issue of affordability a “hoax” made up by Democrats to damage him politically. But that’s an impossible sales pitch for an out of touch billionaire to make to Americans who actually shop for groceries and pay for housing.
Inflation remains at the same three percent it was when he took office in January. Consumer spending is down this holiday season and consumer confidence is near an all-time low. Yesterday brought news that the unemployment rate is at its highest level since September 2021, when the country was still struggling through the covid pandemic.
Like the bandages and the makeup on his hand, Trump has to lie to keep up appearances. But it’s getting more difficult for him to deceive people into believing all is well.
Reality bites
During a recent interview with Politico, Trump was asked about his handling of the economy. He gave himself the highest mark conceivable — not just an A+, but an “A+++++.” (Vice President JD Vance said yesterday he’d give the economy the same grade.)
Trump’s absurd claim comes as the White House is doing its best to distort economic statistics and create a narrative that the “golden age” is just around the corner. Unfortunately for Trump and Republicans, those talking points don’t comport with reality.
High inflation and stagnant job and wage growth have resulted in 68 percent of American adults saying the economy is “poor.” Trump’s overall approval rating is hovering around 36 percent — one of the lowest points over both his terms as president. He’s doing even worse on the economy, with just 31 percent of Americans saying he’s handling economic issues well.
Trump responded last week by claiming approval polls are “fake.” But by last Thursday afternoon, he was in outright panic mode.
“When will I get credit for having created, with No Inflation, perhaps the Greatest Economy in the History of our Country? When will people understand what is happening?” Trump lamented on Truth Social. “When will Polls reflect the Greatness of America at this point in time, and how bad it was just one year ago?”
Even Trump supporters are beginning to sour on the president. The percentage of his supporters who “strongly approve” of him is at 50 percent — down from 66 percent in March.
Despite stock market highs, some Republicans in Congress appear to recognize the rosy economic portrait being painted by the administration isn’t landing with everyday Americans. Republican Rep. Don Bacon — who isn’t running for reelection next year — is publicly pointing out that Trump’s tariffs are hurting the economy.
“On affordability, tariffs are an issue and I believe Congress should take back that authority,” Bacon said during a recent C-SPAN appearance.
It’s clear that Trump’s economic plan consists of little more than trying to blame Biden for everything and telling people that good times are just beyond the horizon. Ultimately, it’s an attempt to convince Americans that what they’re experiencing isn’t real.
Emboldened opposition
Over the last year, some Democrats have learned how to inflict damage on Trump: resist with strength. Govs. Gavin Newsom in California and JB Pritzker in Illinois are good examples of Democratic elected officials who have racked up wins — both in the political messaging and legal realms — against the president.
Combined with almost daily losses in court on a variety of administration policies, from immigration to tariffs to the size of the federal government and its workforce, chinks in Trump’s armor have been widening for months now.
Perhaps most notably, GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene broke with the president on healthcare subsidies. Recognizing that many of her own supporters rely on the ACA, Greene actually did something that — gasp! — would help her constituents by supporting an extension of the subsidies.
But House Speaker Mike Johnson refuses to bring the issue up for a vote, and now as many as 21 million Americans — including many of Trump’s own supporters — will head into the new year facing suddenly rising healthcare costs.
Republicans only have themselves to blame. Their healthcare plan? It’s coming next week, GOP Rep. Mark Harris lied last Friday, which only served to remind people that Trump has now been claiming his healthcare plan is “two weeks” away for the better part of a decade.
With the lapse of the enhanced ACA subsidies, it’s no surprise that Trump is in very bad shape on healthcare: just three in 10 Americans support his handling of the issue.
Trump is also getting hammered from the right on the Epstein files while taking criticism from members of both parties on the lawless boat strikes. Even his approval numbers on traditionally solid issues like immigration are dropping, and all of this comes as electoral losses mount. Democrats have won nearly every important off-year election this year, signaling a difficult path for Republicans to maintain control of Congress in 2026.
If all that weren’t bad enough, Republicans in Indiana last week bucked Trump on his mid-decade gerrymandering efforts. How did the president respond? By lying that he wasn’t involved in trying to get Republicans in the Hoosier State to redraw maps aimed at stealing two more House seats for the GOP.
“I wasn’t working on it very hard. Would have been nice,” Trump said, pretending to not know the name of a Republican state senator who led efforts to oppose the redistricting plan.
Except Trump was “very much involved.” He threatened to support primary opponents of any Indiana Republican who voted against redistricting. Vice President JD Vance visited Indiana twice to try to whip support for the effort. And for good measure, Trump’s most hardcore supporters made threats to harm and kill a quarter of Republicans in the Indiana Senate.
The more Trump is cornered by effective opposition from members of both parties, the more erratic he’ll become. And yet the White House plans to send an aging and ailing president back on the rally circuit in hopes he can muster some of the political mojo he’s lost this year.
In 2026, there’s every reason to think the Trump show will get even crazier. With all that extra handshaking, there’s no telling what could happen.
That’s it for today
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Exactly. More dangerous and deranged as each day passes. These Republicans hitched their wagons to the crazy train. Every single one of them needs to be sent home by the voters. Thanks, Justin!
How many people do you know who shake hands with the BACKS of their hands? Any injury would be to the palm. Of course, the way Trump shakes hands, his hapless victim is at risk of a dislocated elbow or shoulder, but in his current state of physical decline I doubt he does that anymore.