Noah, brilliant analysis on the fascist psychology of “speed and violence” as the motive. But there’s actually a unifying strategic framework underneath the incoherence you’re describing.
I just published analysis showing Venezuela wasn’t improvisation, it’s the November 2025 National Security Strategy being executed exactly as written.
Every contradictory rationale you catalogue: drugs, oil, deportations, anticommunism; gets unified under this doctrine.
“So many reasons suggests there really isn’t one” is exactly right behaviorally. But strategically, the NSS provides the legal architecture that makes all those pretexts work simultaneously. The framework elevates narcoterrorism and migration to existential threats specifically to bypass congressional war powers. It reframes regime change as “law enforcement.” It claims Article II authority for resource seizure.
The incoherence isn’t a bug, it’s how moral licensing works. Pile up enough justifications and no single one has to be credible.
Violence for the sake of power and they’re operationalizing the NSS playbook that authorizes exactly this authoritarian playbook.
Venezuela proves the doctrine works: bomb a capital without congressional authorization, extract a head of state, announce “we’re going to run the country,” face zero institutional pushback. That’s the template for Cuba, Greenland, everywhere the NSS authorizes force.
Wannabe Fascists who document their imperial ambitions as official strategy are even more dangerous than those operating on impulse alone. Trump’s enjoying the violence. The NSS ensures he can scale it systematically across the hemisphere without oversight.
The “personalist dictatorship” foreign policy you’re describing has a published operations manual. That’s what makes it sustainable beyond Trump’s attention span.
Trump's claims that he is risking Americans lives for “peace, liberty, and justice for the great people of Venezuela” remind me of the warning of Alexander Hamilton in the very first issue of The Federalist Papers. In Federalist No. 1 Hamilton highlighted the danger Trump poses:
"a dangerous ambition [even] more often lurks behind the specious mask of zeal for the rights of the people than under the forbidden appearance of zeal for the firmness and efficiency of government. History will teach us that the former has been found a much more certain road to the introduction of despotism than the latter, and that of those men who have overturned the liberties of republics, the greatest number have begun their career by paying an obsequious court to the people; commencing demagogues, and ending tyrants."
Trump is a bully and is not very smart. He is being controlled by fascists who use him to take over the country and now, others countries. We better stop them before it is too late.
Tremendous PN piece especially in scope. Para. 3-4 stand out. He also seeks the 'glory' and 'protection' of being a wartime president [ J Acosta]. "No Kings' protests must become as insistent/relentless as this regime in its lies, crimes, and cruelty. The Kimmel protest was effective and 'fast' because it sustained itself daily. General strikes achieve changes because they are daily and concentrated in their reach. US voters need to ask: can we afford the luxury of holiday celebrations in '26?? The clock and calendar are accelerating.
"The Donroe Doctrine" - he's speaking on random impulse. And as Noah says, there is no reason that makes sense. There is no plan.
I saw the Steven Beschloss essay a bit earlier: Most days it takes serious effort to confront what our eyes and ears are telling us—What the hell is happening? What does it all mean? What do we do about it?—and not lose our minds. But that’s the task that our current mad, mad world demands as we sort through the reality of Trump’s America.
People like Trump are the reason We the People ordained and established our Constitution to expressly deprive Presidents of the powers Trump is usurping. Trump is violating our Constitution by usurping the power to involving us in an illegal, unconstitutional war based on his mid-March 2025 "Proclamation" about a Venezuelan invasion (Venezuela purportedly invading the U.S.) and his "designation" of people he's murdering as "narco-terrorists."
“We the People of the United States” expressly and emphatically “vested in a Congress of the United States” absolutely “All legislative Powers” that were “granted” by our Constitution. The People expressly and emphatically delegated the power to involve us in a war (in the manner in which Trump is doing so) only to our representatives in Congress. We expressly emphasized that “All legislative Powers” included the legislative powers “To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water.”
The People emphatically “vested in a President of the United States” only the power to “preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States,” and that meant primarily the power to “take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed.” That language expressly underscored that the President has no power to violate our Constitution by violating or usurping the legislative powers of Congress.
The power of the President of the United States to wage war is necessarily (and self-evidently) the same limited power that the People reserved to individual states to wage war: “No State shall, without the Consent of Congress . . . engage in War, unless actually invaded, or in such imminent Danger as will not admit of delay.”
In our original Constitution, the People also limited the primary war powers of even Congress to two years. Immediately after the People vested in Congress the power to start a war, the People gave Congress the power (and expressly limited Congress’s power) “To raise and support Armies.” The People emphasized that “no Appropriation of Money to that Use shall be for a longer Term than two Years.” That particular provision also highlights that the People intended that Congress would use the power of the purse to protect us from unconstitutional wars, e.g., wars started or perpetuated by the President in violation of our Constitution.
The People explicitly identified and emphatically restricted the foregoing powers because those power implicitly had the power to involve the People in war. An illegal (unconstitutional) war is the fastest, harshest way for vast numbers of Americans to “be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law.” That’s exactly why the People by our Constitution famously and expressly outlawed that very form of unconstitutional conduct with one of the first, essentially immediate, amendments to our Constitution. That’s also exactly why, immediately after the extremely destructive Civil War, the People famously and expressly re-outlawed that very form of unconstitutional conduct in a second such amendment (the Fourteenth).
Man, I hope Congress brings their spines with them today. The only way to view this is the bigger bully on the playground stealing an entire nation’s lunch money.🤬
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I can't help wondering if Venezuela was targeted because the regime makes lots of left wing noises which sparks Trump and the Republian's natural hostility.
I don't think Trump is likely to cause proper wars. He seems opposed to such struggles and lacks the courage to do so. He'd much prefer agreeable strongmen he could bribe. But inflicting lots of violence on people (especially those of darker hue) that can be done in safety to US aircrews, naval forces shooting missiles and of course drones is clearly something he loves doing even if he has no intention or concept of follow through,
Trump and Hesgeth got really excited blowing up a few things in Yemen (no doubt killing some Houthis) but there nothing came of it. The Houthis are still there, still beligerent and still likely to attack Red Sea shipping if they think it is worth it. It's pretty clear that Trump had no plans beyond capturing Maduro and probably didn't read the intelligence that the regime was likely to be just as antagonistic and committed under a new leader.
I do hope I live long enough for the historians to definitively answer this question but I expect a victim not being able to fight back was merely an essential condition. There's plenty of other countries in the region that can hardly fight back that are beneath the wannabe Emporer's notice.
If the country survives long enough to have elections in 2028 and if the Democrats manage to retake the government, trump needs to get sent to the Hague on day one, along with the rest of the Republican party. And if the hypothetical democratic administration drags its feet on the matter, they need to be sent over too.
"Everyone wants to go to Baghdad. Real men want to go to Teheran." Remember that quote fron early 2003? Well, it turned out the the little boys cosplaying as "real men" never got the chance to send American troops to their deaths in Iran, because they'd already gotten their hubris handed to them on a silver platter by underequipped insurgents with IEDs. There were no nukes in Iraq, but a lot of home-field advantage, fueled by hatred for imperialist occupation. IOW, I don't think Cuba, Colombia, Canada and Greenland have much to worry about, although Trump has just handed them a great excuse to give military support to Venezuela.
Trump America eschews protecting the world for erecting a protection racket: To prevent something unfortunate to happen, you gotta put up some dough … and don’t forget the vig.
In an early article about Trumps dark triad, they said it’s impossible to assume what he’s thinking because his brain is so far from yours or mine. And his ADD might well mean that where things go from here are unpredictable (unless you ask the Millers perhaps). One should also wonder what he’s being told. We know he has no band width for details, policy, norms, the law, or reality. So he’s getting curated bites/bytes from someone(s). The good news: his days are numbered.
I have a beef. You are no better than all the bullshit media out there when you cavalierly dismiss W's justification of the Iraq War because of WMD. "At least everyone knew what the war was about". WTF!!! This was the start of the lying that has become normalized. The justification for invasion was first the link to Al-Qaeda which was quickly debunked then I can't recall reason two but they finally landed on WMD which was info provided by "Curveball" some non-descript insider that turned out to be some clown. It was obvious to me back then that all of those justifications for war were based on lies and I had no insight from out here in the hinterlands. Didn't make sense. So the problem w/ all of the media was they never called what they were doing was blatantly lying to the American people. So your statement above was too timid. Just tell us that Republicans are lying to get us into wars.
Noah, brilliant analysis on the fascist psychology of “speed and violence” as the motive. But there’s actually a unifying strategic framework underneath the incoherence you’re describing.
I just published analysis showing Venezuela wasn’t improvisation, it’s the November 2025 National Security Strategy being executed exactly as written.
Every contradictory rationale you catalogue: drugs, oil, deportations, anticommunism; gets unified under this doctrine.
“So many reasons suggests there really isn’t one” is exactly right behaviorally. But strategically, the NSS provides the legal architecture that makes all those pretexts work simultaneously. The framework elevates narcoterrorism and migration to existential threats specifically to bypass congressional war powers. It reframes regime change as “law enforcement.” It claims Article II authority for resource seizure.
The incoherence isn’t a bug, it’s how moral licensing works. Pile up enough justifications and no single one has to be credible.
Violence for the sake of power and they’re operationalizing the NSS playbook that authorizes exactly this authoritarian playbook.
Venezuela proves the doctrine works: bomb a capital without congressional authorization, extract a head of state, announce “we’re going to run the country,” face zero institutional pushback. That’s the template for Cuba, Greenland, everywhere the NSS authorizes force.
Wannabe Fascists who document their imperial ambitions as official strategy are even more dangerous than those operating on impulse alone. Trump’s enjoying the violence. The NSS ensures he can scale it systematically across the hemisphere without oversight.
The “personalist dictatorship” foreign policy you’re describing has a published operations manual. That’s what makes it sustainable beyond Trump’s attention span.
—Johan
Former Foreign Service Officer
Trump's claims that he is risking Americans lives for “peace, liberty, and justice for the great people of Venezuela” remind me of the warning of Alexander Hamilton in the very first issue of The Federalist Papers. In Federalist No. 1 Hamilton highlighted the danger Trump poses:
"a dangerous ambition [even] more often lurks behind the specious mask of zeal for the rights of the people than under the forbidden appearance of zeal for the firmness and efficiency of government. History will teach us that the former has been found a much more certain road to the introduction of despotism than the latter, and that of those men who have overturned the liberties of republics, the greatest number have begun their career by paying an obsequious court to the people; commencing demagogues, and ending tyrants."
Trump is a bully and is not very smart. He is being controlled by fascists who use him to take over the country and now, others countries. We better stop them before it is too late.
Or, in the alternative, his Project 2025 masters are letting his freak flag fly … so they can ride in (on white steeds) to “save the day”
That would be just as bad! Not a good choice!
Tremendous PN piece especially in scope. Para. 3-4 stand out. He also seeks the 'glory' and 'protection' of being a wartime president [ J Acosta]. "No Kings' protests must become as insistent/relentless as this regime in its lies, crimes, and cruelty. The Kimmel protest was effective and 'fast' because it sustained itself daily. General strikes achieve changes because they are daily and concentrated in their reach. US voters need to ask: can we afford the luxury of holiday celebrations in '26?? The clock and calendar are accelerating.
"The Donroe Doctrine" - he's speaking on random impulse. And as Noah says, there is no reason that makes sense. There is no plan.
I saw the Steven Beschloss essay a bit earlier: Most days it takes serious effort to confront what our eyes and ears are telling us—What the hell is happening? What does it all mean? What do we do about it?—and not lose our minds. But that’s the task that our current mad, mad world demands as we sort through the reality of Trump’s America.
really good, thanks, Noah.
People like Trump are the reason We the People ordained and established our Constitution to expressly deprive Presidents of the powers Trump is usurping. Trump is violating our Constitution by usurping the power to involving us in an illegal, unconstitutional war based on his mid-March 2025 "Proclamation" about a Venezuelan invasion (Venezuela purportedly invading the U.S.) and his "designation" of people he's murdering as "narco-terrorists."
“We the People of the United States” expressly and emphatically “vested in a Congress of the United States” absolutely “All legislative Powers” that were “granted” by our Constitution. The People expressly and emphatically delegated the power to involve us in a war (in the manner in which Trump is doing so) only to our representatives in Congress. We expressly emphasized that “All legislative Powers” included the legislative powers “To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water.”
The People emphatically “vested in a President of the United States” only the power to “preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States,” and that meant primarily the power to “take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed.” That language expressly underscored that the President has no power to violate our Constitution by violating or usurping the legislative powers of Congress.
The power of the President of the United States to wage war is necessarily (and self-evidently) the same limited power that the People reserved to individual states to wage war: “No State shall, without the Consent of Congress . . . engage in War, unless actually invaded, or in such imminent Danger as will not admit of delay.”
In our original Constitution, the People also limited the primary war powers of even Congress to two years. Immediately after the People vested in Congress the power to start a war, the People gave Congress the power (and expressly limited Congress’s power) “To raise and support Armies.” The People emphasized that “no Appropriation of Money to that Use shall be for a longer Term than two Years.” That particular provision also highlights that the People intended that Congress would use the power of the purse to protect us from unconstitutional wars, e.g., wars started or perpetuated by the President in violation of our Constitution.
The People explicitly identified and emphatically restricted the foregoing powers because those power implicitly had the power to involve the People in war. An illegal (unconstitutional) war is the fastest, harshest way for vast numbers of Americans to “be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law.” That’s exactly why the People by our Constitution famously and expressly outlawed that very form of unconstitutional conduct with one of the first, essentially immediate, amendments to our Constitution. That’s also exactly why, immediately after the extremely destructive Civil War, the People famously and expressly re-outlawed that very form of unconstitutional conduct in a second such amendment (the Fourteenth).
I strongly agree with this analysis, as usual. I do think the Epstein files played a role in at least the timing of this.
Yes! Trump’s desperation to change the topic, is definitely at play here.
Man, I hope Congress brings their spines with them today. The only way to view this is the bigger bully on the playground stealing an entire nation’s lunch money.🤬
U.S. citizens living, serving, or studying abroad—you can vote from wherever you are! 🌍 Visit https://votefromabroad.org to register and request your overseas ballot.
It’s quick, free, and valid for all elections in 2026. Need help? Write to help@votefromabroad.org.
Vote from Abroad volunteers are ready to assist you with any questions about requesting or returning your ballot. Don’t wait! Request your ballot today and make your voice heard! 🗳️
I can't help wondering if Venezuela was targeted because the regime makes lots of left wing noises which sparks Trump and the Republian's natural hostility.
I don't think Trump is likely to cause proper wars. He seems opposed to such struggles and lacks the courage to do so. He'd much prefer agreeable strongmen he could bribe. But inflicting lots of violence on people (especially those of darker hue) that can be done in safety to US aircrews, naval forces shooting missiles and of course drones is clearly something he loves doing even if he has no intention or concept of follow through,
Trump and Hesgeth got really excited blowing up a few things in Yemen (no doubt killing some Houthis) but there nothing came of it. The Houthis are still there, still beligerent and still likely to attack Red Sea shipping if they think it is worth it. It's pretty clear that Trump had no plans beyond capturing Maduro and probably didn't read the intelligence that the regime was likely to be just as antagonistic and committed under a new leader.
Venezuela was targeted because, like Grenada of old, it can hardly fight back.
I do hope I live long enough for the historians to definitively answer this question but I expect a victim not being able to fight back was merely an essential condition. There's plenty of other countries in the region that can hardly fight back that are beneath the wannabe Emporer's notice.
And take note: One of the largest providers of fentanyl is China … no threats of attacking small boats here.
If the country survives long enough to have elections in 2028 and if the Democrats manage to retake the government, trump needs to get sent to the Hague on day one, along with the rest of the Republican party. And if the hypothetical democratic administration drags its feet on the matter, they need to be sent over too.
"Everyone wants to go to Baghdad. Real men want to go to Teheran." Remember that quote fron early 2003? Well, it turned out the the little boys cosplaying as "real men" never got the chance to send American troops to their deaths in Iran, because they'd already gotten their hubris handed to them on a silver platter by underequipped insurgents with IEDs. There were no nukes in Iraq, but a lot of home-field advantage, fueled by hatred for imperialist occupation. IOW, I don't think Cuba, Colombia, Canada and Greenland have much to worry about, although Trump has just handed them a great excuse to give military support to Venezuela.
Trump America eschews protecting the world for erecting a protection racket: To prevent something unfortunate to happen, you gotta put up some dough … and don’t forget the vig.
In an early article about Trumps dark triad, they said it’s impossible to assume what he’s thinking because his brain is so far from yours or mine. And his ADD might well mean that where things go from here are unpredictable (unless you ask the Millers perhaps). One should also wonder what he’s being told. We know he has no band width for details, policy, norms, the law, or reality. So he’s getting curated bites/bytes from someone(s). The good news: his days are numbered.
I have a beef. You are no better than all the bullshit media out there when you cavalierly dismiss W's justification of the Iraq War because of WMD. "At least everyone knew what the war was about". WTF!!! This was the start of the lying that has become normalized. The justification for invasion was first the link to Al-Qaeda which was quickly debunked then I can't recall reason two but they finally landed on WMD which was info provided by "Curveball" some non-descript insider that turned out to be some clown. It was obvious to me back then that all of those justifications for war were based on lies and I had no insight from out here in the hinterlands. Didn't make sense. So the problem w/ all of the media was they never called what they were doing was blatantly lying to the American people. So your statement above was too timid. Just tell us that Republicans are lying to get us into wars.