I expect Noah is right. If Trump was going to escalate militarily he would have done it by now but he probably realizes no amount of bombing is going to effect regime change, that requires troops on the ground and that's a non-starter. He therefore wants a peace deal that he can present as a win and the Iranians aren't going to provide him one (funny that).
While Trump's political troubles provide some solace (I'll admit I'm enjoying them) the important point is the Strait of Hormuz remains closed (bar a trickle to countries Iran favours). More imporatantly every passing day means more misery and impoverishment for hundreds of millions (perhaps billions) of people around the world. Many people are going hungry today because Trump launched a needless war.
I'm a little concerened that the politicallly sophisticated observers seem very focused on Trump's travails and hardly seem to notice the suffering of vast numbers of ordinary people.
And while Trump, oaf supreme, has embarrassingly lost this embarrassing war, let’s not forget the contributions of Major Oaf Hegseth … who has reduced a once mighty armed force to sneak attacks, indiscriminate bombings and vast exhaustion of bombs and missiles at extraordinary cost.
Reminds me of a cartoon/photo of Bush II at the onset of Trump: "Miss me yet?" Whoever used to be the worst cabinet secretary in any department is now the second-worst.
I'm old enough to remember Bush Junior's ill fated invasion of Iraq. In fact I remember it clearly. Take it from me this was much better reasoned and far better planned than the present Iran fiasco. It was also much more honourable in intention. We now look at it as the greatest strategic mistake in US history in living memory. But the Iran war hasn't stopped and there's plenty of room for it to become even more damaging than it has already.
In terms of the reputation of the US military as an effective, well lead force (at the strategic level....ie the Oval Office) this has probably been a greater disaster. The Iraq war left the US perceived as a super power that made a mistake. It still had allies and condisderable respect.
This war has the US seen as a soon to be former super-power, highly prone to strategic stupidity, with no allies and very little respect, it's unquestioned ability to blow things up notwithstanding. The smart money is now firmly on the US going down hill as leading power.
I say this as a non-American and with no pleasure at all. I long for the the US of pre 2024.
Trump checks every single box of narcissism, and every single box of mental decline. He has significant physical health issues that likely further impair him mentally. He surrounds himself with cowardly narcissists. The rethuglican party has become daycare for weak narcissists, and they have sanctioned him and his goons with their silence. It seems as though a China Syndrome meltdown is coming for him, his cabinet, and the whole party. It is hard to fathom what actions, what commitments, and what people will be needed to restore the country to a functioning democracy. I suspect that it will take an entire generation to get to the other side of the descent into fascism.
Every day, I remind myself of the British slogan “Keep Calm and Carry On.” Not in a weak or desperate way, but in a determined and committed way.
“No matter how hard Evil tries, it can never quite match up to the power of Good, because Evil is ultimately self-destructive. Evil may set out to corrupt others, but in the process corrupts itself." — John Connolly
He started a war with no plan, no allies, no exits, and no mandate... and now he's posting the same delusional Truth Social rant twice in a week because reality won't cooperate with his ego. 409 Americans wounded, gas at $4.50, and the man is more worried about how the "Fake News" covers his fantasy victory than about the troops at Walter Reed he couldn't be bothered to visit. This isn't a president. It's a narcissistic void wearing a flag pin.
Unfortunately, drumpf still has the support of 37%+ of Americans. One would have thought such support would be unthinkable; yes, people voted for (most likely) a pedophile, a convicted rapist, a convicted felon with 34 counts of fraud against him, but now that he's openly stated he doesn't care about Americans' financial woes, which he has accelerated, do they continue to enjoy rolling over and having him do it again? Rhetorical question, alas.
Trump's best option is a War Powers Resolution that forces him to withdraw sooner than later. He doesn't lose face - it's not his fault! - but we get extracted, the SoH opens at least partially.
Let's hope that the Rs in Congress admit this and get their butts engaged.
The strategic trap here is real and worth taking seriously: escalation is politically toxic, surrender damages his base, and the status quo is bleeding the economy. None of those options are good... and that's a consequence of launching a war without any clear theory of victory. Whatever your politics, launching military action without a defined end state is a failure of basic governance, and the public is now paying for it at the pump.
A modicum of proof reading would REALLY cement your point: Calvary was the hill on which Christ was crucified. The Cavalry is the Army unit in which I served.
I believe Senator Wicker’s first name is Roger, not Robert, but the point is made in spite of the error.
Taking the time and making the effort to be accurate would have solidified the very salient argument!
If he breathes people are going to hate him. But not enough people. He has manipulated the news dissemination system in his favor. He has manipulated the legislative process in his favor. He built a system that works for him, that will not change until he has left the stage. Meanwhile, a hodgepodge of efforts to work around him risk becoming sclerotic over time. We need to undo the damage done and the solutions to work against that damage. Evil has been redefined. Unintended consequences indeed.
I expect Noah is right. If Trump was going to escalate militarily he would have done it by now but he probably realizes no amount of bombing is going to effect regime change, that requires troops on the ground and that's a non-starter. He therefore wants a peace deal that he can present as a win and the Iranians aren't going to provide him one (funny that).
While Trump's political troubles provide some solace (I'll admit I'm enjoying them) the important point is the Strait of Hormuz remains closed (bar a trickle to countries Iran favours). More imporatantly every passing day means more misery and impoverishment for hundreds of millions (perhaps billions) of people around the world. Many people are going hungry today because Trump launched a needless war.
I'm a little concerened that the politicallly sophisticated observers seem very focused on Trump's travails and hardly seem to notice the suffering of vast numbers of ordinary people.
I was with you until the last para.
And while Trump, oaf supreme, has embarrassingly lost this embarrassing war, let’s not forget the contributions of Major Oaf Hegseth … who has reduced a once mighty armed force to sneak attacks, indiscriminate bombings and vast exhaustion of bombs and missiles at extraordinary cost.
Yep in the pantheon of awful Secretaries of War/Defence Hegseth stands supreme. No one else comes close.
Reminds me of a cartoon/photo of Bush II at the onset of Trump: "Miss me yet?" Whoever used to be the worst cabinet secretary in any department is now the second-worst.
I'm old enough to remember Bush Junior's ill fated invasion of Iraq. In fact I remember it clearly. Take it from me this was much better reasoned and far better planned than the present Iran fiasco. It was also much more honourable in intention. We now look at it as the greatest strategic mistake in US history in living memory. But the Iran war hasn't stopped and there's plenty of room for it to become even more damaging than it has already.
In terms of the reputation of the US military as an effective, well lead force (at the strategic level....ie the Oval Office) this has probably been a greater disaster. The Iraq war left the US perceived as a super power that made a mistake. It still had allies and condisderable respect.
This war has the US seen as a soon to be former super-power, highly prone to strategic stupidity, with no allies and very little respect, it's unquestioned ability to blow things up notwithstanding. The smart money is now firmly on the US going down hill as leading power.
I say this as a non-American and with no pleasure at all. I long for the the US of pre 2024.
Trump checks every single box of narcissism, and every single box of mental decline. He has significant physical health issues that likely further impair him mentally. He surrounds himself with cowardly narcissists. The rethuglican party has become daycare for weak narcissists, and they have sanctioned him and his goons with their silence. It seems as though a China Syndrome meltdown is coming for him, his cabinet, and the whole party. It is hard to fathom what actions, what commitments, and what people will be needed to restore the country to a functioning democracy. I suspect that it will take an entire generation to get to the other side of the descent into fascism.
Every day, I remind myself of the British slogan “Keep Calm and Carry On.” Not in a weak or desperate way, but in a determined and committed way.
“No matter how hard Evil tries, it can never quite match up to the power of Good, because Evil is ultimately self-destructive. Evil may set out to corrupt others, but in the process corrupts itself." — John Connolly
He started a war with no plan, no allies, no exits, and no mandate... and now he's posting the same delusional Truth Social rant twice in a week because reality won't cooperate with his ego. 409 Americans wounded, gas at $4.50, and the man is more worried about how the "Fake News" covers his fantasy victory than about the troops at Walter Reed he couldn't be bothered to visit. This isn't a president. It's a narcissistic void wearing a flag pin.
Unfortunately, drumpf still has the support of 37%+ of Americans. One would have thought such support would be unthinkable; yes, people voted for (most likely) a pedophile, a convicted rapist, a convicted felon with 34 counts of fraud against him, but now that he's openly stated he doesn't care about Americans' financial woes, which he has accelerated, do they continue to enjoy rolling over and having him do it again? Rhetorical question, alas.
Trump's best option is a War Powers Resolution that forces him to withdraw sooner than later. He doesn't lose face - it's not his fault! - but we get extracted, the SoH opens at least partially.
Let's hope that the Rs in Congress admit this and get their butts engaged.
The strategic trap here is real and worth taking seriously: escalation is politically toxic, surrender damages his base, and the status quo is bleeding the economy. None of those options are good... and that's a consequence of launching a war without any clear theory of victory. Whatever your politics, launching military action without a defined end state is a failure of basic governance, and the public is now paying for it at the pump.
"It's over, but it will never be over," describes the Middle East military actions since antiquity.
A modicum of proof reading would REALLY cement your point: Calvary was the hill on which Christ was crucified. The Cavalry is the Army unit in which I served.
I believe Senator Wicker’s first name is Roger, not Robert, but the point is made in spite of the error.
Taking the time and making the effort to be accurate would have solidified the very salient argument!
If he breathes people are going to hate him. But not enough people. He has manipulated the news dissemination system in his favor. He has manipulated the legislative process in his favor. He built a system that works for him, that will not change until he has left the stage. Meanwhile, a hodgepodge of efforts to work around him risk becoming sclerotic over time. We need to undo the damage done and the solutions to work against that damage. Evil has been redefined. Unintended consequences indeed.
‼️💯‼️