Simon Rosenberg on Trump the electoral albatross
“You can dye his hair, paint his face, strap a girdle and a diaper on him and pump him full of speed, and he’s still not going to look like a presidential candidate.”
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Tom Suozzi’s victory in NY-03 was a big win for Democrats. It was also a triumph for veteran Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg, who tapped into his growing Hopium Chronicles audience to organize get out the vote efforts on Suozzi’s behalf.
As Suozzi prepared to deliver his victory speech late Tuesday, Rosenberg went on MSNBC and explained the broader context of Democrats flipping that Long Island seat.
"There's been a basic fundamental dynamic, in my view, in our politics, since the spring of 2022, when Dobbs happened, which is that Democrats keep over-performing expectations and Republicans keep struggling,” he said. “It's showing up in every kind of race."
Rosenberg went on to make a case that immigration rarely ends up being a decisive issue in general elections — bad news for Republicans who are trying to make 2024 all about migrant fear-mongering — and summed up his thoughts on the presidential race thusly: "Joe Biden is a good president, the country is far better off today, the Democratic Party is strong and winning elections all across the country, and they have Trump, who is the most unfit guy to run for president in all of American history."
Watch the whole segment:
With the polls still showing the presidential race way too close for comfort, Public Notice contributor Thor Benson connected with Rosenberg last week to unpack the reasons why he’s optimistic about November.
Despite the name of his publication, Rosenberg isn’t trying to ply his audience with false hope. His credibility as an interpreter of polls was enhanced during the 2022 cycle, when he was a voice in the wilderness saying that the red wave predicted by many pundits was in fact a mirage. He was proven right when Democrats maintained a Senate majority and nearly held on to the House as well.
“I think the media has constantly downplayed Trump’s misdeeds and how deranged he’s become,” Rosenberg told us. “It’s part of why the media got 2022 wrong, which is that everyone overly discounted the impact that the insurrection and ending Dobbs was going to have. It’s happening again.”
On Trump, Rosenberg remarked: “You can dye his hair, paint his face, strap a girdle and a diaper on him and pump him full of speed, and he’s still not going to look like a presidential candidate.”
A transcript of the conversation, lightly edited for clarity and length, follows. And if you’d like to listen to the conversation I had with Rosenberg for my podcast back in July, you can check it out here.
Thor Benson
The national polls for the presidential election are quite close, and some surveys show Trump ahead in important swing states. Where do you think Biden stands at this point?
Simon Rosenberg
We’re many months away from the election. Republicans are having a primary and Democrats aren’t, so it’s not surprising that the polls are all over the place. I think many Americans have not really engaged in thinking through what they’re going to do. I characterize the polls as bouncy or bumpy or not all pointing in the same direction.
We have polls now of Biden beating his 2020 results in New Hampshire and Michigan and Pennsylvania. My view is this is a close, competitive race. We’ve got work to do, but I would much rather be us than them heading to the 2024 election.
Thor Benson
Do you think a lot of this is just that people haven’t fully digested that the election is going to be Trump vs. Biden?
Simon Rosenberg
Yes, and I think we also learned in 2022 not to center our political understanding around polls that are not all pointing in the same direction. To me, the central reality of this race is that Joe Biden is a good president, the country is better off, the Democratic Party is strong and winning elections all across the country, and they have Trump — the most unfit person to run for president in all of American history.
That’s where the election is, in my view. As somebody who’s been doing this for a long time, I think the media has constantly downplayed Trump’s misdeeds and how deranged he’s become. It’s part of why the media got 2022 wrong, which is that everyone overly discounted the impact that the insurrection and ending Dobbs was going to have. It’s happening again.
The truth is the economy is booming right now and Biden will have a very strong case for reelection. I don’t really know how you dress Trump up now and make him look like a serious presidential candidate. To me, he’s a far weaker candidate than he was in 2020. He’s campaigning from the courthouse and not the White House this time. He’s more degraded, extreme, and dangerous.
Trump’s performance on the stump is far more erratic, unhinged, and even disturbing. He’s also making classic political mistakes, like coming out against the Affordable Care Act while record signups are taking place and taking credit for ending Roe. Those are the kinds of things that can cause candidates to lose elections.
We’ve been winning elections all across the country in the last couple years. They’ve been struggling, and that basic dynamic of our strength and their struggle, to me, is where the election really is right now.
Thor Benson
It appears Biden’s lost some support among Black voters, hispanic voters, and young voters. Do you think that changes before November?
Simon Rosenberg
He’s at 41 or 42 percent. That means some of his vote has wandered. I wouldn’t call it “lost support.” If you lose support, it has to go somewhere else. A lot of these voters are undecided, or a term I use is “wandering.” Some of our coalition is wandering. I think a big chunk of it is going to come back when the election is clearly Trump versus Biden, and Biden can campaign to go get back the rest.
I can show you high quality polls of both hispanics and young people that show no erosion for Biden. I don’t really buy this notion that there’s been some kind of dramatic erosion of his standing. I think the softness and weakness we’re seeing with Biden is consistent with what happens when you don’t actually have an election happening and people aren’t really checked in.
I’m not worried about where we are. We have work to do. I don’t want to downplay that. We have work to do to rebuild our coalition and win the election, but these are things that are doable. These are things that are within our power to do. I don’t think Republicans have the power to make Trump look like a serious presidential candidate. You can dye his hair, paint his face, strap a girdle and a diaper on him, and pump him full of speed, and he’s still not going to look like a presidential candidate.
Thor Benson
You mentioned that the media hasn’t done a great job covering Trump, and Biden often doesn’t get the credit he deserves. What do you think Biden can do to help change the narrative?
Simon Rosenberg
There’s still lingering over our entire DC discourse this notion that Trump has magical powers and this deep connection with the American electorate that gives him hidden strength. The truth is, the whole origin of that theory was built in 2016 — an election that Trump was losing by five or six points, and then Comey intervened.
In my view, he never had those magical powers. He never had that deep connection with the white working class. We know that because in the very first election after his presidency we routed the Republican Party in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If he was this magical figure with all these superpowers, why did he get his ass kicked in the 2018 and 2020 elections?
Biden, who was supposedly a weak candidate, oversaw enormously historic and impressive performances in off year elections in 2022 and 2023. There was a really anomalous and weird election that happened in 2016, and in all of the elections since Democrats have just continued to win.
Thor Benson
In terms of winning back those voters who have wandered, what can Biden do to make them want to come back home?
Simon Rosenberg
The campaign has to turn on. We have to start talking to voters. He’s been president, but there hasn’t been a campaign. Trump’s campaign apparatus spent over $200 million last year, and Ron DeSantis spent over $130 million. Republicans spent hundreds of millions of dollars talking to voters, and we didn’t.
We need to get going. I also think the State of the Union is going to matter. We need to hear from Biden what he wants to do in a second term. That’s going to start filling in critical information for people that they need to get enthusiastic about him.
My view is that Biden achieved his central promise to us. He said he would get us to the other side of covid. That’s what got him elected in 2020. Now, he has to start talking about what he’s going to do with his last four years. That’s going to be a really important part of the campaign. If he can lay out two or three things that sound really compelling to people, it’s going to really matter in terms of bringing the coalition home and giving people a reason to get excited.
That’s it for this week
We’ll be back with more Monday. Thanks as always for your support, and have a great weekend.
Yes, the dyed orange crop top and the bad makeup job all on daily display by our media do not equal a Presidential contender. He grew out of a manure patch and will end up in one.
While the American media spotlight, ever enthralled by the sensationalism of the moment, remains fixated on Trump's legal issues - A CRUCIAL AND OVERLOOKED DANGER CONTINUES TO UNFOLD IN THE UNITED STATES. The influence of Putin's strategies quietly attempts to reshape the trajectory of American politics and American lives. We are seeing this happening now. We have MAGA elected officials in Congress, who are still taking orders from Trump - who takes his instructions from Putin. These people demanded that the border bill be passed first and foremost, then refused to sign this bill simply because Trump wishes to continue using this issue for a political campaign.
The shadow cast by Putin over the landscape of American democracy, and his influence and CONTROL over Trump grows larger and darker by the moment. Americans simply do not grasp anything outside of our four walls (borders).
Putin spent his spy years in East Germany and absorbed Hitler's methodologies and gruesome concepts. As a reminder, Hitler turned a peaceful nation into mass murderers which resulted in the deaths of over 6 million souls. Putin took these tools back to Russia, and turned a communist country (a form of socialism) into a dictatorship totally ruled by one man and the KGB fraternity. These tools include bribery and coercive mind control (brainwashing) - which is defined as telling lies over and over until it is perceived as the truth. CNN has reported that 70% of the Republicans in the United States STILL believe Trump's big lie that the 2020 election was stolen. Biden won that election by over 7 million votes - not by 11,780 votes which is the amount brazenly asked by Trump on a recorded phone call with the State of Georgia.
Stalin was believed to be the most vile dictator to ever live. He murdered an estimated 20 million people, mostly by starvation. Putin is often compared to Stalin. Putin's estimated death toll so far is over one million humans needlessly murdered. This is relevant because Trump admires and wishes to emulate Putin. In the United States, more than one million Americans have died from COVID. A large portion of these deaths could have been prevented if Trump listened to educated physicians, did not recommend the use of Ivermectin, Hydroxychloroquine, and even bleach as treatments, or if he wore a mask instead of denied it's essential usefulness to stop the spread of a deadly disease.
In 2008, Trump Jr. spoke at a NY conference and mentioned that the Trump organization was now working with Russian banks and had received $100 million in funds. (www.businessinsider.com). A few years later, Eric Trump verified this information. (www.vanietyfair.com) U.S. banks refused to loan funds to Trump due to his four previous bankruptcies. Russian banks, totally controlled and managed by the Russian KGB/FSB give large sums of money for two reasons: (1) to launder black cash into another country's economy, and (2) to obligate and entrap a foreigner to work for Russia. It is my estimate that about ten years prior to the Russians maneuvering Trump into the job as President of the United States he was on the KGB payroll. Twelve Russians were arrested for U.S. election interference, but they have also promised this will continue.
Microsoft has proved that 58% of all cyber attacks into the U.S. come from Russia. This includes hacking into our food and supply chain, gas and oil, military and security, banking and financial, and yes, our elections and probably our polls. Polls sway voter opinions. So when you said:
"With the POLLS still showing the presidential race way too close for comfort, Public Notice
contributor Thor Benson connected with Rosenberg last week to unpack the reasons why he’s
optimistic about November. Despite the name of his publication, Rosenberg isn’t trying to ply his
audience with false hope. His credibility as an interpreter of polls was enhanced during the 2022
cycle, when he was a voice in the wilderness saying that the red wave predicted by many pundits
was in fact a mirage. He was proven right when Democrats maintained a Senate majority and
nearly held on to the House as well."
Putin, as a Cold War-era spy, blames the United States for the breakup of the Soviet Union. He calls it the largest catastrophe of the last century. He wants revenge. In 1997, a book surfaced in Russia called The Foundations of Geopolitics. This book lists of goals for Putin as the 2nd President of Russia and at the top of this list is the destruction of the United States from within. It should be obvious to all Americans that Donald Trump is aiding Putin in this effort.
2024 is an election year in the U.S. between a madman (and most likely a traitor) or a leader with almost 50 years of experience and public service. We need everyone to vote like their life depends on it - because it does!
Elizabeth Graham, www.democrazy2020.com
Do political analysts factor in the voter suppression tactics put into play since 2021 by gerrymandered R controlled state legislatures? It boggles the mind that any serious political discussion ABOUT VOTERS would omit it. While the media is fighting for clicks, the electorate is getting shut out of choosing their own representatives. Rosenberg talks of “work to do” ... hopefully combating voter suppression is part of said work.