Mike Johnson's Epstein bungling is a disaster for the GOP
The House speaker and his boss put on a masterclass of failure.
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Speaker of the House Mike Johnson has been plotting for almost two months to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and last week all his schemes reached fruition.
No sooner had Democrats in the Senate cravenly surrendered on the shutdown battle than Johnson was forced to finally, after 50 days, swear in Arizona Democrat Adelita Grijalva. She immediately signed the discharge petition mandating release of files relating to sex offender and Trump pal Jeffrey Epstein.
Johnson, in other words, committed an egregious abuse of power for the express purpose of ensuring that a Democratic shutdown loss would be quickly superseded by a loss for the White House and a public explosion of an ugly scandal that exposes deep fault lines in the MAGA coalition.
The speaker’s almost unbelievable incompetence — which is also Trump’s unbelievable incompetence — in no way erases or excuses the failure to defend healthcare for the American people. It is an important reminder though, in a media environment obsessed with Democratic disarray, that Dem bumbling and cowardice is often matched and surpassed by the bumbling cowardice of the right.
The Wile E. Coyote of House procedure
Observing Johnson in recent months has been like watching an especially tedious and extended Road Runner cartoon, where the Coyote fashions intricate knots of congressional procedure in order to tie himself, over the course of weeks, to a giant stack of lit dynamite.
This trap was set over the course of years. It started to take shape during the 2024 campaign, when Trump promised to release files related to federal prosecution of billionaire Jeffrey Epstein, accused with his colleague Ghislaine Maxwell of operating a sex trafficking ring to abuse and exploit young women and children. (Epstein died in prison in 2019; Maxwell was convicted in 2021.)
Many on the right called for the release of the Epstein files because they believed they would implicate Democratic figures like former President Bill Clinton. To cater to them, Trump promised to release the files. But Trump himself was close friends with Epstein for years — he had in fact been accused by a woman of raping her at Epstein’s home when she was 13 years old (the accuser in 2016 withdrew a lawsuit related to the allegation). Trump’s compliant Justice Department told him in May that his name was in the files. He and/or his administration subsequently decided not to release them. That seems suspicious, for obvious reasons.
Trump has done little to alleviate those suspicions. Instead, he has continued to do everything in his power to prevent the release of the Epstein files — as has his chief stooge in Congress, Mike Johnson.
Johnson refused bipartisan calls to bring a bill to the floor requiring the DOJ to release the files. So in early September, conservative Republican Rep. Thomas Massie filed a discharge petition to force a vote. The petition requires a majority of House members to sign on. Every Democrat signed, and so, surprisingly, did rabid MAGA Reps. Nancy Mace, Lauren Boebert, and Marjorie Taylor Greene. Trump engaged in an active, and successful, lobbying effort to dissuade other Republicans.
In late September, though, Grijalva won her special election and promised to sign the discharge petition as her first act. Hers would have been the last vote needed to pass the petition. But the government shutdown began shortly thereafter, and Johnson responded by closing the House. In an unprecedented abuse of power, he refused to swear Grijalva in for seven weeks.
Grijalva accurately characterized Johnson’s actions “unconstitutional” and “illegal.” She also said that she believes the delay was a tactic to delay the Epstein vote — which is also almost certainly accurate. More, it seems that Johnson’s abuse of power was undertaken at Trump’s behest, given Trump’s close attention to the discharge petition and Johnson’s general eagerness to prostrate himself before the president.
Trump and Johnson clearly are not tactical geniuses. Refusing to seat Grijalva ensured that a lot of shutdown coverage would center on Epstein and/or the fact that the House was not in session and representatives were twiddling their thumbs while people’s SNAP benefits were disrupted and air travel spiraled into chaos. All of this is part of why public opinion was so solidly against Republicans throughout.
Worse than that for the GOP, though, was the fact that Johnson ensured that the end of the shutdown would ensure the passage of the discharge petition. Johnson had kept Grijalva out on the pretext that the House wasn’t open. But to end the shutdown, the House had to open and vote. Grijalva had to be sworn in before any other business could occur. So Grijalva signed the discharge petition — and suddenly the big story was not that the Democrats had caved, but that the country and survivors were a step closer to seeing the Epstein files.
Trump will not stop punching himself in the face
House Democrats helped compound the damage to the GOP by simultaneously releasing 20,000 documents from Epstein’s estate. These included emails about Trump which underline that the two had a longtime relationship based in part on their mutual pursuit of young women. In one email, Epstein claims he has pictures of Trump with “girls in bikinis in my kitchen.”
Trump, though, also ensured that the discharge petition would receive as much attention as possible by once again making high profile efforts to stop it.
Justice Department and FBI officials reportedly met with Boebert in an unsuccessful bid to get her to remove her name from the discharge petition. Trump also pressured Mace and insinuated that he might oppose her in run for South Carolina governor.
Trump’s tantrum continued into the weekend (though he suddenly reversed course Sunday night and on Truth Social encouraged House Republicans to vote in favor of releasing the files — a face-saving move since it was already clear the measure had the necessary votes). He went on a social media rant in which he called Marjorie Taylor Greene “wacky,” a “lunatic,” and a “traitor” and said she “is a disgrace to our GREAT REPUBLICAN PARTY!” Greene responded by saying his post had made her a target for threats. She added, “It’s astonishing really how hard he’s fighting to stop the Epstein files from coming out that he actually goes to this level.”
This kind of headline-grabbing bullying simply keeps the Epstein files in the news and emphasizes that Trump is afraid to release them. And anything that reminds people of the files or of Trump’s relationship to them is bad for Trump. His net approval on the issue of releasing the Epstein files is -39. Only 45 percent of Republicans approve of his handling of the case. It’s the one issue where Republican base voters are likely pressuring their reps to vote against Trump.
As Republican Sen. John Kennedy told CNN while criticizing the White House’s approach on the files, “I just don’t think this issue is gonna go away until it’s addressed and answered to the American people’s satisfaction.”
Where the Epstein fight goes from here
Johnson could have continued to stall and tried to push the vote on the Epstein files back. He didn’t, presumably because his caucus wants to get the vote over with as quickly as possible so they can talk about literally anything else. Thomas Massie hopes to get 290 votes, which would be enough to override a presidential veto. That would require around 76 Republican defections.
No one has hard numbers, but current reporting suggests that a large number of Republicans — maybe more than 100 — are in fact likely to vote for the release of the files later today. Don Bacon of Nebraska, one of the most centrist GOP House members, said he will vote for it; so has Rob Bresnahan, who represents a contested Pennsylvania swing district.
A landslide House vote in favor of releasing the files would not necessarily result in their release, though. The petition would need to follow the usual path to becoming a law. That means that Senate leadership would not need to take it up — and Republican leaders John Thune and John Barrasso have indicated they’re not interested in giving it a vote (though if there’s an overwhelming majority in the House in favor of releasing the files, there would be a lot of pressure on them to change their minds).
The Senate could also pass it with some sort of noxious amendment designed to kill it, forcing another vote in the House. And even if it survived that, it would still have to go to the president, who may veto it. The House and Senate would then have to muster a two-thirds vote to override him. And even then Trump still might just refuse to release the files, and the whole thing would go to the courts, and who knows what would happen at that point.
It is still, in other words, likely to be a bitter slog for survivors, and the path to any kind of justice or accountability remains long and difficult.
Trump’s commitment to blocking release of the files is ugly. It’s also, as noted above, extremely unpopular, even within the GOP. Republican efforts to palliate the president on this issue have led them to place and then step on bizarre, easily avoidable political landmines. The issue has also split the GOP coalition, causing even very MAGA members to distance themselves from the president.
The problem is compounded by the fact that there may well be extremely damaging information about Trump in the Epstein files. Trump has, after all, been held liable for sexual assault, accused of sexual assault by numerous women, and boasted on tape of sexually assaulting women. It’s reasonable to suspect there may be more evidence or accusations of impropriety or crimes in the Epstein files.
Last week, Democrats in the Senate pivoted from sweeping election victories to a shutdown surrender, enraging their base and ceding some of the momentum that had driven positive media coverage and midterm hopes. But at the same time Republicans, led by Trump, engineered a sweeping, self-destructive scandal which seems likely to drag on for months, and possibly (if Trump has his way) for years.
Republican incompetence and cruelty, and their choice of an amoral monster and adjudicated sexual abuser to lead them, is not good news for anyone. It’s worth remembering, though, that the Democrats are not the only party with an uncanny aptitude for self-destruction.
That’s it for today
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Your analysis seems to be missing a logical cog: You decry the Democrats' shutdown "surrender" but it was that surrender that, by ending the shutdown, forced Johnson to seat Grijalva, which in turn moved Trump/GOP's Epstein nightmare forward. So to these tired eyes it looks like the Democrats made, politically and tactically, a very smart decision. What am I missing?
Thank you, Mr. Berlatsky. The bungling of the epstein files is really amazing. djt could have scrubbed the files months ago and released them. djt could have had them destroyed and used our former Justice Department to fight a never-ending legal battle for which he would have his version of plausible deniability. It all makes me wonder what is happening behind the scenes.