Mark Robinson may deliver North Carolina for Kamala Harris
He makes JD Vance seem normal.
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Last week, CNN reported that more than a decade ago, North Carolina GOP gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson referred to himself on a porn forum called “Nude Africa” as a “Black NAZI.” He also wrote, “Slavery is not bad. Some people need to be slaves. I wish they would bring it (slavery) back. I would certainly buy a few.”
Robinson also attacked Martin Luther King Jr., used antisemitic and homophobic slurs, and admitted he enjoyed pornography featuring trans people despite his extensive and ugly history of anti-LGBT bigotry. And this is just what CNN was willing to print! (Screencaps of even more disturbing posts have been circulating on social media.)
These revelations have, as you’d expect, damaged Robinson’s chances of becoming governor. Larry Sabato of the Crystal Ball changed the race from lean D to likely D. Inside Elections moved the rating from “Tilt Democratic” to “Likely Democratic.” Split Ticket changed from “Lean Democratic” to “Safe Democratic.” Split Ticket analyst Lakshya Jain explained the decision by noting that, among other things, Republicans are now unlikely to spend money on a race they have every reason to believe is a lost cause.
So Robinson is cooked. But what about the presidential race? Could the spectacular implosion of the GOP’s top candidate push North Carolina over the line for Kamala Harris?
Figuring out cause and effect in elections isn’t easy. But the presidential race in North Carolina is very close, Robinson is incredibly toxic, and early voting in the state has begun — albeit haltingly thanks to confusing court decisions. There are good reasons to believe Robinson’s scandal could help Harris win the state.
Robinson was a nightmare candidate even before the Nude Africa revelations
Nobody who has been following Mark Robinson is really surprised by his horrific comments. His porn forum statements under an alias are very much in line with his public statements.
In the past, Robinson — the current lieutenant governor of North Carolina — has embraced numerous antisemitic conspiracy theories and used antisemitic slurs. In a Facebook post, he once called Michelle Obama a man, echoing far right transphobic, misogynist, and racist conspiracy theories. He mocked Nancy Pelosi’s husband after he was brutally attacked by a MAGA supporter with a hammer. In June, as part of his campaign for governor, Robinson delivered a rant in which he declared, “Some folks need killing!” The “some folks” included leftists, socialists, and communists — by which Robinson appears to mean anyone who opposes the far right. (Watch the video below via New Republic.)
The constant stream of bile and hate dripping out of Robinson has not made him popular. His polling in a state Trump won by 1.3 points in 2020 has been abysmal. Even before the latest bombshell, most polls showed Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein leading Robinson by a healthy margin: 47-42 in a Victory Insights poll, 48-40 in Emerson, 50-37 in Morning Consult.
The porn forum Robinson comments are in many ways just the final nail in a coffin already built and largely sealed by non-porn-forum Robinson.
That last nail, though, is a really pointy and loud one. Analyst Harry Enten reported on CNN that google searches for Mark Robinson in the wake of the scandal were up nationally by 8,540 percent. In North Carolina, where people were already aware of and googling their gubernatorial candidate, searches were still up 4,330 percent.
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Republicans won’t distance themselves
In most instances, the presidential contest drives local race results rather than the other way around. But this is a pretty unusual situation. Robinson’s Nude Africa bigotry is sufficiently outrageous and salacious that it has become a massive national story. And part of that story is that Republicans, including Trump, are unwilling to disavow him.
Trump has repeatedly talked up and endorsed Robinson at rallies and campaign events. He’s called him a “friend” and said he was “one of the hottest politicians in the United States of America.” He’s also referred to Robinson as “Martin Luther King on steroids” and said he was “better than Martin Luther King. I think you are Martin Luther King times two” — comments that are especially ugly given Robinson’s vicious denigration of King and his work. (Watch Trump praising Robinson below.)
Robinson has vowed to stay in the race, insisting that Nude Africa account is not his (even though the account used his full name and an email address known to be his). This has left the GOP in a bind.
Robinson is no longer appearing at North Carolina Trump events and Trump didn’t so much as mention him during his rally in the state on Saturday, so there’s some effort at distancing. But Trump has not rescinded his endorsement, and the North Carolina Republican Party has doubled down on its support. JD Vance has hedged, saying of Robinson’s denials, “I don’t not believe him. I don’t believe him.” (Watch below.)
North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis tweeted that “we must stay focused on the races we can win” — but even he didn’t condemn anything that Robinson said or acknowledge that he was unfit for office. Meanwhile, Robinson’s staffers are voting with their feet, as all but a few of them resigned over the weekend.
The GOP has normalized conspiracies, bigotry, and hate. It is, therefore, very difficult for them to distance themselves from a candidate, no matter how bigoted and hateful their rhetoric. Robinson is toxic, but the GOP can’t and won’t ditch him. He’s their candidate; this is their party.
That has given Democrats an opportunity and they are gleefully capitalizing on it. This weekend the DNC saturated Raleigh, Charlotte, and Greensboro with ads linking Robinson and Trump. The Harris campaign also quickly shared clips and images online highlighting Trump’s endorsement (“We have to cherish Mark. He’s like a fine wine”) and Robinson’s horrific statements (“I’d take Hitler over any of the shit that’s in Washington right now!”).
Will it work?
Again, most state and local races do not tend to move national numbers that much. But there’s evidence that there can be an impact in some circumstances. Run For Something conducted a study which suggested that Biden’s 2020 win in Georgia may have been fueled by turnout for downballot elections, including two major Senate races. The downballot Democrats, Run For Something believes, turned out an additional 22,000 votes — twice Biden’s 11,000 vote margin of victory.
The race for North Carolina this year could easily be as close as the 2020 result in Georgia, which Biden won by .23 percent. Trump is currently up in North Carolina by .2 percent in 538’s polling average. If Robinson’s scandal depresses GOP turnout just slightly or flips a fraction of the vote from Trump to Biden, that could mean a Harris win. And if Harris wins North Carolina, CNN analysts believe she has a 95 percent chance of winning the entire election.
Of course, the scandal could fade from the media before election day. But Robinson is still campaigning, and that means voters will continually be reminded that he exists and has the endorsement of the GOP.
In addition, voters in North Carolina are already starting to vote. Independent candidate, Trump ally, and anti-vax kook Robert F. Kennedy Jr. delayed early voting in the state by trying to get his name off the ballot to help Trump. But overseas ballots have now been sent. Other absentee ballots are set to be mailed this Tuesday, September 24.
Harris isn’t guaranteed a win in North Carolina. Democrats haven’t flipped the state since Barack Obama’s sweeping victory in 2008. But Robinson has done everything he can to turn the state blue, and his efforts may well prove successful.
Either way, one thing is certain: after his self-immolation, Mark Robinson is not going to be governor of North Carolina. It turns out that screaming about how you love Adolf Hitler can, in fact, still matter in a US election. That’s good news for North Carolina and for the country as well.
That’s it for today
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Thanks for reading.
How did Robinson even get elected Lt. Gov.?
An angle worth exploring here is the role race plays in the overwhelmingly white GOP. For understandable reasons African Americans have long gravitated to the Democratic Party, even when the Democratic Party was mostly ignoring their priorities. The GOP has to be at least a little bit nervous about this. (Compare photos of the House Democratic caucus and the House Republican caucus standing on the Capitol steps. The contrast is glaring.) One result is that Black politicians can rise faster and farther in the GOP than they can in the Democratic Party, which has a very, very deep bench. I have a very hard time imagining a white Republican with Mark Robinson's views becoming the GOP gubernatorial candidate in a swing state like NC. (I do not, however, have a hard time imagining a white Republican with Mark Robinson's views, period.)
The Republicans aren't disavowing Robinson now, though they do seem to be backing off somewhat. How will the situation develop in the longer term? It'll be interesting to watch. I can imagine the GOP's harder-core white racists saying, at least in private, "See? This is what happens when you promote Black candidates." They've probably been thinking this all along.