How a right-coded media environment boosts Trump
TikTok, X, and the manosphere push young voters away from Dems.
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A near-majority of American voters willingly reelected Donald Trump. This harsh reality is a collective moral failure, but it’s also not a choice made in sound mind.
Consider that voters believed Trump’s first presidency was a roaring success and Joe Biden’s only term a Carter-level catastrophe. It’s an upside-down Bizarro World view that ultimately played a key role in dooming Kamala Harris.
Trump’s 2024 platform was rooted in an obvious lie — that the nation under Biden’s leadership is a flaming dumpster fire and everyone was much better off when Trump was president. Democrats challenged this false reality with facts, but they ultimately lost the messaging war. Their best efforts were no match for the most powerful weapons in Trump’s propaganda arsenal — a timid press and a right-coded social social media environment.
Greg Sargent reports in the New Republic that the Harris campaign’s own internal polling revealed an alarming trend: “Undecided voters didn’t believe that some of the highest profile things that happened during Trump’s presidency — even if they saw these things negatively — were his fault.”
According to exit polls, Trump decisively won the questions “who do you trust more to handle the economy?” and “who do you trust most to handle a crisis?” Of course, in reality Trump utterly botched the 2020 pandemic response, which researchers concluded resulted in 40 percent more deaths than necessary. And yet swing voters are willing to risk it all again in hopes of cheaper eggs and cruelty against outgroups.
Disinformation on demand
Legacy media shoulders significant blame for their “sanewashing” of Trump’s incoherency and deteriorating mental state. Voters believed Trump could fix a steadily improving economy despite his promotion of inflationary tariffs. The media even presented Trump’s rants as cogent discussions of economic theory.
It’s worth noting, however, that an NBC poll from April revealed that voters who received news primarily from legacy media (newspapers, cable news, etc.) still overwhelmingly supported Biden. Trump owes his victory in great part to low-propensity voters of all races, including young men, and those voters don’t necessarily form their views based on mainstream media reporting. Rather, far too many are stuck in an online social media bubble where they are delivered a steady diet of rightwing propaganda.
The median age of a Fox News viewer is 68, and liberals have joked about the network “brainwashing” their conservative parents. But rightwing social media content has effectively targeted and radicalized younger people, who — unlike the typical Hannity-obsessed grandpa — can vote for the next several decades.
TikTok, which Trump joined in June, has 170 million users in the United States, and according a Pew Research survey, more than half of them said they regularly get their news from the platform. That’s up from just 22 percent in 2020. This is a serious concern because the far right uses TikTok to advance unfounded conspiracy theories and outright lies.
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Rightwing content on TikTok goes mostly unchallenged. In the past year, there were twice as many pro-Trump posts as pro-Democratic ones. A recent estimate places 70 percent of TikTok’s users between the ages of 18 to 35. Once a key Democratic constituency, Kamala Harris won voters aged 18 to 44 by just 5 points (51 to 46 percent), a steep decline from Joe Biden’s 14 point margin (56 to 42 percent).
Trump surrogates boosted his youth appeal on the platform with videos of him attending Ultimate Fighting Championship matches and college football tailgates. Meanwhile, over the past year, TikTok users have encountered an onslaught of posts criticizing the Biden/Harris economy. The term “Silent Depression” went viral, as seemingly average, everyday young people complained about increased costs for housing, food, and transportation.
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Woods Owned frequently posted video compilations of Americans shouting about inflation. Blair Allison, an avowed Trump supporter, received millions of views for her video that wondered “how people can afford to live right now.” These videos fostered a negative feedback loop, and content creator Kyla Scanlon, who birthed the term “vibecession,” warned last year that people were steadily getting angrier about the economy.
Lower income Americans, particularly young people, do spend more of their income on groceries, rent, and gas. That’s why Republicans were so laser focused on the price of eggs. Unfortunately, there’s a dearth of liberal content countering the negative vibes. Of course, explaining the post-pandemic economic recovery is complex and requires more than a punchy one-minute video can convey. Although people might idly scroll TikTok all day, consuming 60-second quick hit videos like potato chips, they will balk at reading an extensive, well-reported news article. That’s too filling a meal.
According to a University of Oregon study, 40 percent of Democrats and 57 percent of Republicans surveyed said they’d become more conservative from their TikTok usage. Half of the Democrats surveyed said they’d grown more liberal, but a lot of far-left content on TikTok is downright alienating and can sound like MAGA’s idea of a strawman leftist. For instance, one user boasted that she “didn’t care” if liberal economic and social policies “hurt the economy,” thus conceding that those policies are in fact harmful to economic progress.
TikTok’s artificial “vibecession” dominated the discourse, while abortion-related content was actively suppressed even while pregnant women were bleeding out in parking lots. Users of the platform resorted to disguising the word “abortion” as “aborshun” or “ab0rti0n” in order to reach an audience. TikTok has a longstanding policy against promoting abortion services, which it classifies as “unsuitable businesses, products or services.” However, TikTok, YouTube, and Meta have allowed users to spread and monetize anti-abortion misinformation.
Studies have shown an interesting gender gap in where young people receive their news on social media: For most women, it’s TikTok, while most men learn about the world from YouTube, X, and Reddit, all of which have become havens of crude masculinity.
On YouTube, 56 percent of users are between the ages of 18 and 44. The Institute for Strategic Dialogue, a London-based nonprofit that researches extremism, conducted a four-part research project this year that determined YouTube’s algorithm consistently steers users to rightwing and Christian content. The algorithm does this even with seemingly apolitical search terms, like “male lifestyle guru,” which YouTube reflexively associates with conservative ideology. Rightwing news content was also more frequently recommended, including anti-vaxxer videos. As far back as 2019, both YouTube and Facebook’s autofill search boxes would return content that promoted anti-vaccine misinformation.
Meta’s social media platforms Facebook, Instagram, and Threads suppress political content, and while this has choked off liberal creators, far-right ones still thrive. Matt Walsh and Ben Shapiro have millions of followers on Facebook and there’s significant engagement with their rage bait. They also drive the political debate, often putting Democrats on the defensive. Walsh supercharged the “groomer” smears against LGBTQ Americans, which led to anti-queer legislation in Florida and other red states. There’s a direct line from hate influencer Chaya Raichik’s Libs of TikTok social media posts to Trump’s sudden fixation with trans youth.
Why rightwing content has the edge
When Kamala Harris appeared on the Call Her Daddy podcast, host Alexandra Cooper told her listeners, “I do not usually discuss politics or have politicians on the show because I want Call Her Daddy to be a place that everyone feels comfortable tuning in.” Left-leaning podcasters/social media content creators often avoid politics for fear of turning off their right-leaning fans. Joe Rogan and Dave Portnoy at Barstool Sports don’t bother with such apologies when they have rightwing guests because it doesn’t compromise their brand. They are rightwing cultural influencers.
Liberal podcaster Hasan Piker recently commented on the impact rightwing influencers have on young men of all races.
“There is a massive amount of rightwing radicalization that has been occurring, especially in younger male spaces. Everything is completely dominated by rightwing politics,” he said. “If you’re a dude under the age of 30 and you have any hobbies whatsoever, whether it’s playing video games, whether it’s working out, whether it’s listening to a history podcast or whatever, every single facet of that is completely dominated by center right to [the] Trumpian right. Everything they see is rightwing sentiment.”
Rogan and Portnoy might not present as overtly political as Walsh and Shapiro, but their edgy, hyper masculine personas are pure MAGA. Even billionaire CEO Elon Musk likes to present himself as a “disrupter,” an agent of change who boldly confronts the status quo. Anyone who’s seen the more popular indie films of the 1970s would realize how compelling this narrative is to young men.
The subtle way that Rogan and Portnoy infuse politics into their personas presents a contrast with left-leaning social media content. The liberal TikToker or YouTuber who releases videos about home makeovers might endorse Democratic politicians during election season while wearing their “just voted” sticker, but rightwing influencers prime their audience on a daily basis. Young men marinate in a stew of rightwing sentiment and end up resenting the libs.
Trump significantly improved his performance among Latino voters, outright winning Latinos in Michigan and flipping some predominately Latino districts in the northeast. This shocked Democrats considering Trump’s brutal anti-immigrant rhetoric. But Latinos are a disproportionately younger voting cohort and they use social media more regularly than white Americans. It’s reasonable to assume that most of those voters were shielded from Trump’s more grotesque positions or only encountered them through rightwing commentators defending them.
It’s true that Latinos are not a homogenous voting bloc, and a third-generation Latino in a Texas border town might have a harder line on border security than a white liberal in Portland. But it’s definitely convenient for Trump and the GOP that Latino voters ranked the economy and violent crime as their top issues, both of which right-coded social media platforms present as five-alarm fires.
Another area of concern for Democrats is that Trump doubled his share of support among young Black men. As the civil rights movement fades further into the past, Black voters’ cultural and traditional links to the Democratic Party are becoming less secure. Studies have also shown that Black Americans are now less likely to get their news from political and religious leaders than from social media platforms. (Rogan has a sizable Black audience, more so even than The Breakfast Club.)
At first glance, it seems condescending to declare that voters made the wrong choice because they didn’t know any better. However, on every major issue, voters were fundamentally misinformed and insisting otherwise won’t improve Democrats’ chances in future elections. Democratic politicians and liberals need to quickly discover some way to engage in this Orwellian information environment. Otherwise, all the self-flagellation about messaging failures and policy changes won’t amount to much.
That’s it for today
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Thanks for reading.
I learned a lot from this article Stephen, thank you for writing it. I’m a 74-year-old white woman and of course I’m devastated by the results of this election. I think so much of the demographic of men, 18 to 30 year olds, I should say white men, are going to be out of reach of the Democratic Party because they fear the coming population diversity by 2045. This nation will become “minority white” in 2045. During that year, whites will comprise 49.7 percent of the population in contrast to 24.6 percent for Hispanics, 13.1 percent for blacks, 7.9 percent for Asians, and 3.8 percent for multiracial populations.
White people do not give up their place at the top, they never have in history, and I don’t see it happening anytime soon. I don’t know what the messaging should be because this country is racist amongst white people, and racism is what this fight is about because white men are losing their domination. And it’s amazing to me how much the population will be Hispanic, which I feel white people have a virulent hatred for Hispanic people, and they lump them together, with a contemptuous voice calling them “Mexican”. And the sound of the word sounds just like white people using the N-word when they talk about Black folks. It’s full of contempt, racism, and hatred. I wish I felt different about this, but the evidence is just to in my face. I don’t know what the future holds for the Democratic Party but if Trump and the Republicans have their way, there’s never gonna be any kind of fair voting again anyway.
It is a truism that most politicians are elastic with the truth. Trump lowers that already-ankle high bar with his incessant misinformation and blatant lies. This man is not just a felon - and an acclaimed sexual predator - but a proven fraudster. That MAGA world can’t see that is a fine example of mass hysteria/cult obeisance. Abandon all hope …